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Saturday, May 5, 2018

Decoding EX Gagan Shakti 2018

The conduct of the 14-day EX Gagan Shakti full-spectrum air-exercises by the Indian Air Force (IAF) from April 8 till 22, 2018 served as the first declaratory signalling by India that a coherent politico-military policy has at last emerged with regard to determining the final status of Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK). It has thereby added the much-required teeth to India’s national endeavour, which was undertaken on February 22, 1994 when India’s Parliament unanimously adopted a resolution that firmly declared that the State of Jammu & Kashmir (J & K) has been, is and shall be an integral part of India and any attempts to separate it from the rest of the country will be resisted by all necessary means, and that Pakistan must unconditionally withdraw from PoK, which it had forcibly occupied through military means.
This parliamentary articulation of a position hitherto implicit or left understated was, in fact, a tectonic change that many at that time had failed to grasp. But while India’s armed forces had grasped and understood the full politico-military implications of this resolution, it was the succeeding political leaderships of the country that had until the recent past failed to muster the necessary will and grit required for wresting back PoK from Pakistan through the conduct of a ‘just AirLand military campaign, i.e. a full-scale high-intensity limited war with limited objectives under a nuclear overhang.
Under the leadership of Air Chief Marshal Birender Singh ’Tony’ Dhanoa, the IAF had over the past eight months geared up for undertaking joint effects-based AirLand campaigns along with the Indian Army (IA). The five principal doctrinal underpinnings of the IAF were exercised and validated, these being persistence, persuasion, compellence, endurance and jointness. Consider the following:
1) The IAF for the first time carried out duck-drops, an air-mobile operation, of military boats and special operations forces over the country’s highest dam for drills to use waterbodies to infiltrate into enemy territory and launch attacks on their bases. The reservoir of the Tehri dam in Uttarakhand was used for the exercise by the IAF’s Western Air Command for simulating a waterbody acting as a border between India and its neighbor Pakistan. The IAF used its C-130J-30 Super Hercules transports from the Hindon air base, which first dropped a rigid-hulled inflatable boat (RHIB), followed by a team of Garud personnel who used the waterbody to launch attacks on enemy bases in order to make inroads into their areas. The C-130J-30s, flying at low-level, were also used for air-dropping the IA’s SF (Para) forces at low heights to the waterbody in a window of 30 seconds to a minute. These sorties were all provided air-cover by escorting MiG-29UPG medium-multi-role combat aircraft (M-MRCA).
This operation is identical to the one that is likely to be undertaken by a joint IA-IAF air-assault strike force in the event of the order being given to capture the Marala Headworks north of Sialkot along the Sialkot-Chhamb sector of operations.
2) In another drill, eight Mi-17V5 medium-lift helicopters was used to rapidly deploy troops to the Nyoma heli-base, a few kilometres from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh and Tangste valley at an altitude of 13,500 feet.
This operation is identical to the one that is likely to be undertaken by a joint IA-IAF air-assault strike force in the event of the order being given to capture certain critical hel-bases like the one at Goma in PoK.
3) In another high-voltage operation, the Gaggal airport near Dharamsala was simulated as a hostile advanced landing ground (ALG) beyond India’s border that had to be captured and used as a forward air base for the IAF and as a firm base. A small team of 14 heavily-armed Garud commandos first neutralised the enemy personnel based there under the cover of darkness. The entire simulated attack was carried out at around dawn to catch the enemy by surprise and within 30 minutes, the whole ALG was sanitised. The Garuds then used a high-tech SATCOM radio to signal the follow-on C-130J-30s and An-32REs, which were orbiting in friendly airspace loaded with SF (Para) elements, to arrive at the ALG and launch their ground-attacks.
This operation is identical to the one that is likely to be undertaken by a joint IA-IAF air-assault strike force in the event of the order being given to capture critical airports like the ones at Rawalakot and Skardu in PoK.
4) In another joint operation, the IAF and a Battalion of the IA’s Agra-based Parachute Brigade carried out an airborne assault with 560 patatroopers and wheeled light combat vehicles loaded on GPS guided palletised packages in the desert sector on the night of April 12. The air-assault force was dropped behind simulated enemy lines to soften up the likely resistance prior to the pred-dawn commencement of  an armoured offensive by a Brigade-sized integrated battle group (IBG). This operation was provided hardened and dynamic air-dominance by Su-30MKI H-MRCAs.
This operation is identical to the one that is likely to be undertaken by a joint IA-IAF air-assault strike force in the event of the order being given to capture certain critical areas within the Chicken’s Neck area straddling southern J & K.
Decoding The IAF’s Mobilisation & Sustained Surge Matrix
According to on-the-record statements made by IAF HQ, EX Gagan Shakti commenced in the west, involving two Air Commands in Phase-1, followed by three air commands being involved in the east in Phase-2. More than 1,100 aircraft–half of them combat aircraft hailing from 31 squadrons–logged more than 6,000 flight-hours in the four days, accounting for the launch of more than 5,000 sorties in a ‘sustained surge’ method that comprised missions ranging from long-distance precision strikes, interdiction of land-based and maritime targets, attacks against ground-based targets of opportunity in the tactical battle area (TBA), and robust multi-layered air defence. The combat aircraft involved in the exercise recorded a serviceability rate of 80%, compared to a target of 75% during peacetime, and a despatch reliability of more than 95%. Radars and air-defence artillery systems maintained a serviceability of 97%. A 95% dispatch rate of combat assets, 100% availability of combat support systems (like AEW & CS platforms and aerial refuelling aircraft), 100% despatch availability rate of combat enablers were also achieved. A Battalion-level airborne drop in the second phase of the exercise in the deserts of Rajasthan, coupled with the speedy inter-valley and inter-theatre switching of forces (within 48 hours) involving the entire array of the IAF’s modern and legacy airlift capability (C-17As, C-130J-30s, IL-76MDs, An-32REs and Mi-17 helicopters of varied sophistication) demonstrated a persuasiveness that has been a work-in-progress over the past few years. All in all, 11,000 sorties were flown, of which 9,000 were combat sorties over the 14-day period. In short, EX Gagan Shakti was not about learning tactical lessons, but was instead focussed on checking the IAF’s institutional logistics stamina in order to build up and sustain the high serviceability levels of hardware, as well as reflect a willingness to convert doctrinal pronouncement into deliverables, thereby ensuring conventional military deterrence on both fronts (western and eastern).

But is the figure of 11,000 sorties logged in reflective of a full-scale conventional involving massive retaliation? Or is it strongly indicative of just a limited high-intensity AirLand campaign that was limited in both scope, nature and theatre frontage? It appears that the latter was the case, since the undertaking of the former would have involved the striking of 12 mandatory target-sets, with the methodology for producing the daily attack plans involving synthesizing many inputs—battle damage assessment (BDA) from previous attacks, operational theatre-level guidance, weather, target set priorities, new targets, intelligence, and the air campaign objectives. The target sets are by nature interrelated and cannot be targetted individually. The available aircraft, special operations forces (SOF), and other assets then are assigned missions on the basis of ability and the most effective use of force. The following are the mandatory target-sets:

Leadership Command Facilities
The intent here is to fragment and disrupt the enemy’s political and military leadership by attacking the command-and-control nodes of military forces, internal security elements, and key nodes within the government. The attacks should cause the leaders to hide or relocate, making it difficult for them to control or even keep pace with events. The target-set’s primary objective is to incapacitate and isolate senior decision-making authorities. Specifically targetted are facilities from which the military leadership would attempt to coordinate military actions. Targets therefore include national-level political and military headquarters and command posts throughout the country.

Electricity Production Facilities
Electricity is vital to the functioning of any modern military and industrial power, and disrupting the electrical supply can make destruction of other facilities unnecessary. Disrupting the electricity supply to key facilities degrades a wide variety of crucial capabilities, from the early-warning airspace surveillance radar sites that warn of air-strikes, to the refrigeration used to preserve biological weapons (BW), to nuclear weapons production facilities. To do this effectively requires the disruption of virtually the entire national electric grid, to prevent the re-routing of power around damaged nodes. Although back-up generators sometimes are available, they usually are slow to come on-line, provide less power than main sources, and are not as reliable. During switch-over from main power to a back-up generator, computers drop off-line, temporary confusion ensues, and other residual problems can occur. Because of the fast pace of a massed and synchronised air-attack, even milliseconds of enemy power disruption can mean the difference between life and death for aircrews.

Telecommunications and Command, Control, and Communication Nodes
The ability to issue orders to military and security forces, receive reports on the status of operations, and communicate with senior political and military leaders is crucial to the enemy’s deployment and use of forces. To challenge the enemy’s C3I networks, bombing of microwave relay towers, telephone exchanges, switching rooms, fibre-optic nodes, and bridges that carry co-axial communications cables, is imperative. These national communications networks can be re-established and so, require persistent re-strikes. These either silence them or force the enemy’s leadership to use back-up systems vulnerable to eavesdropping that produce valuable intelligence, particularly in the period before the commencement of large-scale and multi-pronged ground campaigns. Civil TV and radio facilities can be used easily for C3I backup for military purposes. Thus, these installations also need to be struck.

Strategic Integrated Air-Defence System
This is one of the more important immediate target-sets; before friendly airpower can exercise its full aerial bombardment potential, the effectiveness of the hostile air force and ground-based air defences have to be reduced to negligible proportions. Targets include the mid- and upper-level air-defence control centres, SAM sites, radar sites, and the C3I nodes that connect the system.

Air Forces And Air Bases
Hostile air forces always pose both a defensive threat to air operations, and an offensive threat (especially when launching nuclear WMD-armed precision-guided weapons) to forces located in their own territory. Consequently, initial targeting of the hostiler air force must emphasize the suppression of air operations launched from air bases by cratering and mining runways, bombing aircraft, maintenance and storage facilities, and attacking C3I facilities like military air-traffic management sites. It is generally anticipated that the enemy initially would attempt to fly large numbers of defensive sorties, requiring an extensive counter-air effort. It is also to be expected that the enemy will house and protect its aircraft in hardened shelters. An attempt to fly some aircraft to sanctuary in a neighboring country also is  to be expected.

WMD Research, Production and Storage Facilities
The friendly air force’s air campaign planners must always endeavour to destroy WMD weapons research and production capability and delivery vehicles. However, because of the enemy’s elaborate efforts to hide the extent of their WMD-related programmes, a degree of uncertainty of their exact deployment footprint is always there.

Ballistic/Cruise Missiles, Launchers And Their Production/Storage Facilities
Such weapons are considered a military and a psychological threat to friendly military forces, a threat to civilian populations, and a threat to ground-based industrial infrastructure. Along with targetting the fixed ballistic/cruise missile launch-sites, the air campaign planners also need to target the enemy’s ability to deploy existing missiles and build more. Initial air-strikes must concentrate on eliminating the fixed sites, while plans also need to be developed for hunting and destroying mobile launchers, but the missiles themselves can prove to be elusive targets.

Naval Forces And Port Facilities
Although the enemy may not be a major naval power, its naval forces can still posed a threat to friendly naval and amphibious forces, and sealift assets. With the help of shore-based and air-launched anti-ship cruise missiles and sea-mines, the enemy can create a substantial political and military problem by destroying or seriously damaging a principal surface combatant. Hence, the enemy’s naval vessels, port facilities, and coastal ASCM launch-sites need to be struck from the air.

Oil Refining And Distribution Facilities
Fuel and lubricants are the lifeblood of any industrial and military power. They are produced by petroleum extraction, cracking, and distillation systems. Hence, the enemy’s ability to produce refined oil products (such as gasoline) that have immediate military use, instead of its long-term crude oil production capability, need to be targetted.

Railroads And Bridges
Most major railroad and highway bridges are the enemy’s lifelines when it comes to the logistical support of ground forces that frequently need to switch operating frontages. Hence, cutting the bridges and railroad culverts prevents or reduces re-stocking, and prevents reinforcement of the enemy’s deployed forces.

Hostile Strike Corps Reserves
The enemy’s means of projecting power into one’s own territory is centered on its ground forces deployed in the rear-areas that either make use of internal lines of communications for swift deployments, or choose to dig into strong positions built to defend against ground attacks. However, they are vulnerable to air-attack, which can reduce the combat effectiveness of these forces by about 50% before the friendly force’s own ground offensive commences.

Military Storage and Production Sites
The long-term combat effectiveness of any large military force depends on military production facilities and continued support from its logistical bases. Destruction of repair facilities, spare parts supplies, and storage depots serve to degrade the enemy’s combat capability. Usually, there are too many targets to be eliminated entirely. For example, there may be less than 10 primary and 20 secondary ammunition storage facilities alone identified on target-lists; with each being composed of scores of individual storage bunkers. Consequently, the planners first need to destroy the most threatening production facilities and stored materiels, then methodically to proceed with attacks on other storage and production facilities as time and assets would allow.
Thus far in the post World War-2 era, an air campaign involving the concurrent/synchronised targetting of all 12 target-sets has been set in motion only once—Operation Desert Storm in early 1991. Such an AirLand campaign, involving a ‘shaking of the heavens and splitting the Earth’, literally bombed Iraq back into the stone-age. This was achieved through a five week-long (43-day) air campaign in which the multinational coalition flew more than 100,000 sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of munitions. The aerial strike force was made up of more than 2,250 combat aircraft, which included 1,800 US aircraft (including those launched from six US Navy Carrier Battle Groups, with each Group logging some 4,300 combat sorties), the US Marine Corps’ about 240 aircraft (about 9% of the total), and the other coalition partners contributing more than 600 aircraft (about 25% of the total)—all of which fought against an Iraqi force of about 550 combat aircraft of which 259 were destroyed (105 being lost in combat, of which 36 were shot down in aerial combat and of these 22 were downed by AIM-7F Sparrow BVRAAMs and nine by AIM-9L Sidewinder SRAAMs). In addition, 68 fixed wing aircraft and 13 helicopters were destroyed while on the ground, and 137 aircraft were flown to Iran and never returned. A total of 297 Tomahawk T-LAMs and 35 AGM-86C conventional air launched cruise missiles (launched from seven B-52Gs) were fired against eight targets in northern Iraq, including hydroelectric and geothermal power plants near Mosul, and the telephone exchange in Basra. The classified code-name for this air-strike was Senior Surprise. Launched during a 10-minute period from about 100 miles south of the Iraqi-Saudi border near the town of Ar Ar, 31 of them hit their targets. The US Navy fired 288 TLAMs from 16 warships and two submarines.
The USAF’s 42 F-117As flew approximately 2% (1,271) of fixed-wing attack sorties, and struck about 40% of the strategic targets. The 120 F-15 C/Ds flew more than 5,900 sorties and maintained a 94% mission-capable rate—8% higher than in peacetime. The 48 F-15Es logged in 2,200 sorties and 95.9% mission-capable rate—8% higher than in peacetime. The 144 A-10s flew almost 8,100 sorties and maintained a mission-capable rate of 95.7%--5% above peacetime rates. The 84 F-111s logged 4,000 sorties had a mission-capable rate of 85%--8% higher than peacetime rates. The 18 EF-111s Ravens flew 900 sorties with a mission-capable rate of 87.5 %, while and the 48 F-4G Wild Weasals flew 2,500 sorties with a 87% mission-capable rate. The 249 F-16C/Ds (including 72 LANTIRN-capable) flew almost 13,500 sorties and maintained a 95.2% mission-capable rate—5 % above its peacetime rate. LANTIRN’s mission-capable rate was in excess of 98%. The B-52G Stratofortresses flew 1,624 missions, dropped 72,000 weapons, delivered 25,700 tons of munitions on area targets, and had a mission-capable rate of 81%--2 % higher than its peacetime rate. The B-52Gs dropped 29% of all US bombs and 38% of all USAF bombs during the war. More than 50 SOF-related aircraft were deployed inside the war zone at any given time, including helicopters and AC/EC/MC/HC-130s. These flew more than 830 missions. SOF crews also recovered downed aircrew members and provided valuable target identification and HUMINT work. The USMC’s participation included AV-8B Harriers from five units (86 aircraft, including 26 that operated from LHDs). Altogether, they flew 3,567 sorties (most of any USMC-type) and five of them were lost in combat and two to accidents. They delivered 6,000 tons of munitions. The loss-rate per 1,000 sorties was 1.4 (highest of any strike aircraft). Comparable loss-rates were 0.37 (F-16), 0.69 (A-10) and 0.91 (F-15E). The USMC loss-rate per fleet was 5.81%. Average bomb-load per sortie was 3,364 (heavier than that of the F/A-18’s and A-6E’s bomb-loads at 2,000kg each). Surge rate was 3.5 sorties per day. The USMC’s 20 A6E Intruders logged in 854 sorties, dropped an average of 4,000 lbs of munitions per sortie, and drooped a total of 1,708 tons of munitions. The 84 F/A-18s (including 12 F-18D Night Attack variants) flew 5,047 sorties, while the 20 OV-10 Bronco FAC aircraft fleet suffered two losses (10% of deployed strength) and flew 593 sorties, the 12 EA-6B Prowlers flew 516 sorties, the 15 KC-130 aerial refuellers flew 1,267 sorties, the 78 AH-1W SeaCobra attack helicopters flew 1,273 sorties (suffering one combat loss and another to an accident), the 50 UH-1 utility helicopters flew 1,016 sorties (suffering a single loss to an accident), the 120 CH-46 Sea Knight utility helicopters flew 1,601 sorties and suffered one loss to an accident, while the 75 CH-53 Sea Stallion heavylift helicopters flew  2,045 sorties.
The Royal Air Force contributed 60 Tornado GR.1s (which flew more than 1,500 operational sorties and suffered six losses in combat), six Tornado GR.1As for tactical reconnaissance, 18 Tornado F-3s for air-defence, 12 Jaguars (flying 617 combat missions and only seven sorties being lost to unserviceability), and 12 Buccaneer S.Mk.2Bs that flew 250 sorties, with not one being cancelled due to unserviceability. They ‘spiked’ a total of 169 LGBs for other aircraft as well as dropping a total of 48 LGBs of their own. The French Air Force deployed 28 Jaguars that flew 615 sorties in all and were escorted by Mirage F-1C-200s and Mirage 2000Cs.
Number of air-to-air missiles fired by US aircraft: 174

Number of anti-radiation missiles fired by coalition aircraft at Iraqi radars: 2,039

Number of dumb bombs dropped by coalition aircraft: 210,004, of which 39.336 were cluster munitions

Number of smart bombs (LGB/EO) dropped by claoition aircraft: 9,342

Number of air-to-ground missiles fired by coalition aircraft: 5,930
The opening salvo of OP Desert Storm was fired by the US Army’s Task Force Normandy’s two MH-53J Pave Low pathfinder helicopters and eight AH-64 Apaches that fired a total of 27 AGM-114 Hellfire anti-armour guided-missiles, 100 Hydra-70 rockets and 4,,000 rounds of 30mm ammunition. During the first 24 hours of the air campaign, more than 1,300 combat sorties were flown by fixed-wing aircraft of US and coalition forces, including 812 strike sorties (these including 100 SEAD/DEAD sorties (firing 200 AGM-88 HARM and ALARM anti-radiation missiles) against an Iraqi air-defence arsenal that comprised 16,000 SAMs and 7,000 AAA guns).  These were backed up by 160 aerial refuelling tankers, three E-3A AWACS and two E-2C Hawkeyes.  Of the 812 strike sorties, 300 of them were tasked to destroy airspace surveillance and military air-traffic management radars and telecommunications and C3I nodes. Of these 300 sorties, the first wave comprised 12 stealthy F-117A Night Hawks that successfully evaded detection from the 60 SAM sites and 3,000 anti-aircraft guns that had encircled Baghdad. A typical attack against an Iraqi air base saw 20 F-111s, each armed with four 2,000kb Mk.84 LGBs, making two passes each in an operation spanning about seven minutes in the target area. This meant an average weapon impact every five seconds. The Iraqi IADS was decapitated within 36 hours, while static hardened SAM sites were destroyed within four days. By D + 9, complete air supremacy was achieved.
About 15% of scheduled strike sorties during the first 10 days were cancelled due poor visibility or low overcast sky conditions. Cloud ceilings of 5,000 feet to 7,000 feet were common, especially during the ground campaign’s last few days. These conditions also had a negative effect on the ability to collect imagery and hindered the BDA process. Use of air-delivered munitions was affected by high humidity, fog, rain, and low clouds.
As far as combat-support systems go, 20,401 aerial refuelling sorties dispensed 178 million gallons of fuel to 60,543 receivers from USAF 46 KC-10s and 262 KC-1 35s, US Navy KA-6s and tanker-configured S-3s, KC-130s, and other coalition tankers (Saudi KE-3s, French C-135FRs, and nine RAF L-1011-500 Tristars and nine VC-10s that flew 381 missions). Altogether, the non-US aerial refuelling tankers flew more than 4,000 sorties, while the USAF ones flew more than 15,000 sorties.
AEW & CS platforms like the E-3A Sentry AWACS flew a total of 7,315 combat hours or four continuous orbits to control over 3,000 sorties a day, while maintaining a mission-capable rate of 98%--9% higher than in peacetime. They controlled 31,924 combat sorties and 20,401 aerial refuelling sorties. The USAF’s E-3As manned five orbits (four in Saudi Arabia and one in Turkey) and the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF( manned one to three over Saudi Arabia. Two E-8 JSTARS battlespace surveillance aircraft flew 54 combat sorties and supported 100% of mission taskings with a system availability rate of more than 80% and a mission-capable rate of 84.5%. JSTARS tracked everything that moved on the ground. From D-Day to G-Day, JSTARS operators logged more than 535 hours to locate, identify and target assembly areas, POL storage sites, ballistic missile launch areas and missile storage sites, convoys, trucks, armoured vehicles, and even SAM sites and field artillery emplacements. Coupled with F-16s battlefield air-interdiction platforms, JSTARS enhanced the kill-box approach to air-interdiction, which proved highly effective in destroying Iraqi equipment in the Kuwait Theatre of Operations (KTO). JSTARS thus effectively denied the enemy its night sanctuary and kept continual pressure on Iraqi ground troops in the KTO. The USAF’s 265 C-141B Starlifter and 85 C-5 Galaxy strategic airlifters, plus C-130E/Hs and KC-10As when self-deploying) flew 20,500 missions, carried 534,000 passengers, and hauled 542,000 tons of cargo. All in all, the airlifters moved 4.65 billion ton-miles. Sortie data on platforms like the U-2R, TR-1 and RC-135 Rivet Joint remain classified.
The multinational coalition lost 75 aircraft—52 fixed-wing aircraft and 23 helicopters, with 39 fixed-wing aircraft and five helicopters lost in combat. The US lost 28 fixed-wing aircraft and five helicopters; the British lost seven fixed-wing aircraft; the Saudi Arabians lost two; the Italians lost one; and the Kuwaitis lost one.
The US Army’s 274 AH-64A Apache attack helicopters from 15 Battalions fired 1,400 Hellfires (AGM-114A high-trajectory variant and the AGM-114C lower-trajectory minimum-smoke variant), 30mm high-explosive and high-explosive/dual-purpose ammunition and Hydra-70 unguided rockets, destroying 278 battle tanks, more than 600 light and armoured vehicles, 100+ pieces of field artillery, and about 900 other targets. The Apaches made a total of 652 operational flights during 83 missions. They were used primarily for armed night reconnaissance missions inside the KTO because of their night vision and videotape capabilities, which provided timely intelligence information to ground (Division) commanders. Twenty-nine, or 63%, of the 46 missions flown during the war were armed night reconnaissance missions. The 17 remaining missions comprised 10 attack, six security (an operation in which Apaches protected ground forces in a given area), one rescue, and one escort mission. However, the Apaches did engage enemy targets during 14 of the missions flown during the air campaign. On one mission against the Iraqi Republican Guards, the 1st Battalion of the 24th Aviation Brigade (1/24th) destroyed 32 T-72Ms, 60 other armoured vehicles, 38 AAA pieces, 64 wheeled vehicles, and other miscellaneous targets.
During the 28-hour ground campaign, the Apaches routinely operated 20km ahead of ground elements and shaped the battlefield through armed reconnaissance and attack operations. These deep-attack missions shaped the battlefield and set the terms for close operations. Such deep-attack operations cleared the way for mass pursuit operations by coalition land forces, which routed the Iraqi Army. The coalition’s ground offensives thus quickly turned to exploitation-and-pursuit operations. The tempo of the battle increased as the battlefield became non-linear. US Army Aviation resources thus provided the mobility, flexibility and agility required to continue the pursuit. Attack helicopter units placed continued pressure on the enemy while steadily increasing the tempo of battle to a point of inundation.
Battlefield awareness is the key to battlefield dominance. The I/J-band Orchidee system, despite only being at a prototype stage, was resurrected to become part of Operation Horus, as the French deployment for the KTO was known. The Orchidee was used to guide AH-64As of the US Army’s 18th Airborne Corps against massed Iraqi armoured forces (under the locate, fix and strike tactic). The Orchidee was mounted on a Eurocopter AS.532UL Super Puma helicopter with a Thomson-CSF Lotar (Le Centre Thomson d’Applications Radars) 75km-range battlefield surveillance radar, using an antenna that was retractable for takeoff and landing. Intelligence data was found to be of high-quality and was immediately available. This helicopter-borne battlefield surveillance radar proved valuable for Brigade and Divisional commanders and a vital command-and-control tool for massed, multi-directional strikes by attack helicopters. A total of 31 missions were flown: 26 operational and five training. In spite of being restricted to an altitude of 1,500 feet, the system proved capable of tracking all targets within a 20 x 20 square kilometre kill-box and of detecting (but not tracking) targets in a 40 x 40 square kilometre tactical battle area. Used for day and night operations, beginning on February 3, 1991 the Orchidee was employed in 50 hours of combat operations. Shortly after OP Desert Storm, the Orchidee programme was formally resurrected by the French Army. The system was re-named Horizon—the French acronym for helicoptere d’observation radar et d’investigation sur zone. The Horizon system can effectively be operated in two modes. In the first, the radar is operated autonomously with on-board data processing. In the second, one or more helicopters have a secure data-link to download information to a ground station for real-time processing and exploitation. The autonomous mode provides considerable flexibility, allowing the system operator to carry out on-board analysis of the raw radar data. An encrypted radio-link is used to send the results of the initial appraisal to the command echelons on the ground. The system can be deployed to a theatre of operation 1,000km away in less than five hours, and can be operated immediately. The encrypted radio-link can also be used to uplink information from the ground, providing the ability to change the mission profile, even once the helicopter is airborne. It can also be used to provide navigation information. Plots extracted from the radar are stored in on-board recorders and are analysed in real-time by the operator on a console in the helicopter’s main cabin. On the ground, intelligence specialists are able to utilise synthetic images that show detected traffic overlaid on a digital GIS map—either as hard-copy or in the form of a transparency.
Subcontinent’s Historical Track-Record Of Past Air Wars
The air forces of both India and Pakistan have so far not waged the kind of wars against one another that aimed at strategic strangulation or limitlessdestruction. In 1971, when Pakistan had just 19 squadrons against 34 fielded by India, for air-defence of the vulnerable areas (VA( and vulnerable points (VP( in the northern sector of the western front, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) flew a total of 1,417 sorties. These included 1,317 day sorties and 100 night sorties. A total of 11 IAF aircraft were shot down by PAF combat aircraft (as claimed by the PAF), all while egressing, after attacking PAF air bases or air-defence radars. For the defence of VAs and VPs in the southern sector, the PAF flew a total of 253 sorties. These included 167 day sorties and a measly 23 night sorties from Masroor, while Talhar generated 63 day sorties. Additionally, 43 combat air-patrol (CAP) sorties were flown over the tactical battle areas (TBA) in Thar and Kutch. Neither ingressing nor egressing IAF aircraft could be shot down, in what turned out to be an almost futile air-defence effort in the south. The Pakistan Army’s AAA, however, had a fair amount of success in being able to down five IAF aircraft.
130 sorties (40%) were reported by the PAF aircrew–in all candour–to be unsuccessful, either due to armament malfunctions or, because the targets could not be located and bombs were dropped in the general target vicinity on ‘dead reckoning’. The PAF flew a total of 288 offensive counter-air sorties, of which 158 were flown during the day and 130 were flown at night. 81 sorties (28% of the effort) were unsuccessful as the armament could not be delivered due to one of several reasons, these including inability to locate the target, armament delivery malfunction or interception by IAF combat aircraft. Five aircraft were lost during the missions, two during the day and three at night, amounting to a campaign attrition rate of 1.7%, which was considered within acceptable limits. Coming to offensive counter-air operations (10% of the total war effort), effects of the 186 tonnes of ordnance dropped in the 77 successful night-sorties were mixed. The 12-odd sorties flown for ‘suppression of enemy air-defences’ did not yield the desired results. Of the 146 day-sorties (including 35 escorting missions) flown against nine IAF air bases, damage caused to the runways was generally minor and was usually repaired within a few hours. The PAF flew a total of 296 sorties in the Shakargarh Sector, which made up 41% of the PAF’s total tactical air support effort. 183 sorties were considered successful, while 113 sorties were rated as failures. In Suleimanki Sector, 55 ground attack sorties were flown, of which 33 were considered successful. In 22 sorties, either no targets could be found or, bombs were released on dead reckoning with questionable results. In Hussainiwala Sector, a nominal 29 sorties were flown, and other than a mission claiming to have targetted the IA’s Firozpur ammunition dump, all were unsuccessful. 84 CAP sorties were flown. In all, 175 sorties (including 24 night-sorties) were flown in support of the Pakistan Army’s (PA) 18 Division in Chor, Ramgarh and Kutch Sectors. This formed one quarter of the total air support effort provided by the PAF during the war. In addition, 40 CAP sorties were flown.  The real success of ground-based AAA came about over the battlefield, where 17 IAF aircraft were shot down in Chamb, Shakargarh, Lahore and Suleimanki sectors. The PAF flew 22 day-missions and 10 night-missions searching for the Indian Navy’s Project 205 FAC-Ms and other warships, none of which were successful. The PIA airline flew 59 sorties, while other civilain aircraft flew 68 sorties, all with their own crew.
The IAF’s strategic bombing campaign in the northern sector did not go beyond the three-odd missions. Interdiction of the railway system was seen as a far more lucrative exercise, due to the complete absence of any sort of defences. Also, tactical air-interdiction promised rapid results, which were of consequence to the on-going land battles, whereas the strategic strikes required a long-term concerted campaign and were antithetical to an envisaged short war. The IAF had a free hand in its tactical air-interdiction campaign against the railway network, along with a few attacks against targets of strategic importance. Lack of low-level radar cover meant that the IAF’s intruders came in completely unobserved and unmolested by PAF combat aircraft. Shortage of AAA assets resulted in these target areas being unguarded, leaving the IAF’s attackers with little to worry about during weapon delivery. The railway network on the Sialkot-Shahdara Section, Jhelum-Lahore Section, Lahore-Sahiwal Section, Shahdara-Lyallpur Section, Kasur-Arifwala Section, Mandi Sadiqganj-Samasatta Section and Bahawalpur-Lodhran Section was attacked incessantly. Twenty-five railway stations on these sections were targetted, with Wazirabad and Kasur receiving as many as five visits each. In general, the railway sectors selected for attacks were mostly those along which the Indians expected, or were aware, that the PA’s reinforcements might materialise. Sixteen trains were also attacked on these sections, while many track segments were damaged. Five of the attacked trains happened to be of ‘special military’ category. The damage incurred on these trains was, however, inconsequential. Neither was any PA movement impeded, nor were any vital supplies interdicted.
Detailed statistics of the air war effort of both the IAF and PAF can be seen below for comparison purposes.
In what shape did both the air forces emerge post-1971?
While the loss of East Pakistan and the birth of Bangladesh as a nation since late 1971 reduced the IAF’s operational orientation from a three-front scenario to a two-front one, for the PAF it resulted in a single-front scenario, i.e. its eastern front against India, thus resulting in the IAF becoming the PAF’s sole and perpetual enemy.
Today, the PAF can effectively muster only 20 combat-capable squadrons made up of some 300 serviceable combat aircraft (about 400 if reserve Mirage-III/-V airframes and primary/basic jet trainers are also included), that are supported by three combat-support squadrons (versus the IAF’s 33 combat squadrons and three combat-support squadrons).
These include about 45 Chengdu F-7PGs (upgraded with Selex-Galileo-supplied Grifo-F Mk.2 multi-mode radars), eight FT-7PG tandem-seat conversion trainers, about 90 Chengdu F-7P Skybolts (fitted with Grifo-F Mk.1 radars), 13 Chengdu FT-7P Skybolt conversion trainers, 28 Mirage-IIIEAs and four Mirage-IIIDPs in ROSE-I upgrade configuration, six Mirage-VDFs in ROSE-2 upgrade configuration, 14 Mirage-VEFs in ROSE-3 upgrade configuration, 100 JF-17 Thunders (deliveries continuing), and 45 F-16A/Cs and 31 F-16B/Ds.
Airframes held in reserve include 16 Mirage-IIIEPs, 11 Mirage-IIIELs, seven Mirage-IIIDAs, 11 Mirage-IIIRPs, nine Mirage-VPA3s, 30 Mirage-VPA2s, 28 Mirage-VPAs, and 30 Mirage-VDPA2s.
The entire combat fleet is spread out among 12 full-fledged air bases and 12 satellite air bases (the latest being Bholarii, Sindh, plus recent ones in Balochistan that include airfields in Gwadar, Pasni, Ormara, Dalbandin, Turbat and Panjgur from which both Pakistan Navy P-3C Orion MR/ASW aircraft and ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle KE-3 AEW & CS platforms can operate) that come under the command-and-control of three Air Commands.
The Peshawar-based Northern Air Command comprises the Kamra-based No.33 Wing that includes the No.14 ‘Tail Choppers’ Sqn (flying JF-17s) and No.25 ‘Night Strike Eagles’ Sqn flying Mirage-VEFs in ROSE-2 upgrade configuration; and the Peshawar-based No.36 Wing that includes the No.16 ‘Panthers’ Sqn and No.26 ‘Black Spiders’ Sqn flying JF-17s.
The Sargodha-based Central Air Command comprises the Rafiqui-based No.34 Wing with No.15 ‘Cobras’ Sqn and No.18 ‘Sharp Shooters’ Sqn flying Mirage VPAs,  No.20 ‘Cheetahs’ Sqn (flying F-7PGs) and No.27 ‘Zarrars’ Sqn (flying Mirage-VEFs in ROSE-3 upgrade configuration); Sargodha-based No.38 Wing with its  No.9 ‘Griffins’ Sqn, No.11 ‘Arrows’ (Operational Conversion Unit) Sqn and No.19 ‘Sherdils’ Sqn flying Block-15 MLU F-16AM/BMs; and No.5 ‘Falcons’ Sqn flying F-16C/D Block-52s from Jacobabad.
The Masroor-based  Southern Air Command comprises the Samungli-based No.31 Wing with its No.17 ‘Tigers’ Sqn and No.23 ‘Talons’ Sqn both flying F-7PGs, plus No.28 ‘Phoenix’ Sqn flying JF-17s; and the Masroor-based No.32 Wing with its No.2 ‘Minhas’ (equipped with JF-17s) Sqn, No.7 ‘Bandits’ Sqn flying Mirage-IIIEA/DPs in ROSE-I upgrade configuration and Mirage-VELs), No.8 ‘Haiders’ Sqn (flying Mirage-VPA2/3s), and No.22 ‘Ghazis’ (Operational Conversion Unit) Sqn flying Mirage-IIIDF/IIIDA/DL/EL variants.
All these are supported by the  Kamra-based No.3 ‘Angels’ Sqn with four Saab 2000 AEW & C platforms, Masroor-based No.4 Sqn with four ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle KE-3 AEW & CS platforms, and the Chaklala-based No.10 multi-role tanker transport (MRTT) Sqn’s four IL-78MKPs. The PAF is now acquiring three additional Saab 2000 ‘Erieye’ AEW & C aircraft, with the first delivered last December and the remaining pair arriving later this year. The SEK 1.35 billion contract for these platforms was inked on May 15, 2017.
The PAF’s Chaklala, Rawalpindi-based Air Defence Command, through its RABTA integrated command-and-control system, exercises surveillance, control, and coordination of Pakistan’s airspace and air-defence identification zone (ADIZ that extends up to 80nm inside Indian airspace).
It is divided into three regional air commands: HQ NORSEC (Northern Sector) based at PAF Chaklala and falling under the control of the Northern Air Command; HQ CENSEC (Central Sector) at Sargodha under the Central Air Command; HQ WESSEC (Western Sector) based at Samungli (near Quetta, Balochistan) also falling under the command of Central Air Command; and HQ SOUSEC (Southern Sector) based at Faisal air base (in Karachi, Sindh) and falling under the control of the Southern Air Command.
The PAF’s six L-band Lockheed Martin TPS-77s high-power airspace surveillance radars along with a YLC-2V High Guard 3-D S-Band radar are located at Korangi Creek, Sakesar, Masroor, Kirana Hills, Rafiqui and Lower Topa.
The medium-power radars—comprising four L-band Northrop Grumman TPS-63s, four E.F-band TPS-43G radars and four S-band YLC-6M radars are commanded and operated by the PAF’s No. 481 Control & Reporting Centre (CRC) based at Lahore, No. 482 CRC based at Rafiqui, No.483 CRC at Samungli, No. 484 CRC based at Upper Topa, No.485 CRC at Kirana Hills, and No. 486 CRC based at Chaklala.
The 1980s vintage 68 SIEMENS-built SILLACS L-Band MPDR-45 (with 45km-range), MPDR-60 (with 60km-range) and MPDR-90 (with 90km-range) low-level gapfiller radars for protecting the VAs, VPs and air-corridor approaches to the air bases are operated by the No. 242 Sqn, No. 408 Sqn, No. 409 Sqn, No. 410 Sqn, No.471 Sqn, No. 541 Sqn and No. 904 Sqn.
For integral base-air defence, the PAF had by 2013 taken delivery from MBDA of 10 Batteries of SPADA-2000 SHORADS systems (with another five Batteries being optioned for). Its Euro415 million procurement contract was inked in 2007, and was inclusive of the supply of 750 missiles and the construction of two product-support facilities (commissioned in 2009) in Karachi. The first Battery was delivered in February 2010. Each SPADA-2000 Battery includes: a Detection Centre with a RAC-3D radar with 60km range, and up to four six-round missile launchers. They are backed-up by 40+ Rheinmetall GDF-005 Skyguard-3 air-defence cannons.
Like the PAF, the PA and Pakistan Navy (PN) too are upgrading their ground-based air-defence assets. For layered air-defence of its three sprawling Ballistic/cruise missile torage sites in Mangla, Kirana Hills and Masroor, the PA is now inducting CEIEC-supplied JY-27A 280km-range VHF radars and related TS-504 multi-point troposcatter communications relay systems, plus NORINCO-supplied CS-RB1 HGR-106 medium-power 210km-range gapfiller radars—all of which will be used by the PA’s three CPMIEC-supplied LY-80E MR-SAM/LOMADS Regiments and three CPMIEC-supplied FM-90 SHORADS Regiments.
The first FM-90 Battery was handed over on March 16, 2016, while the first LY-80E Battery was handed over on March 12, 2017. For point air-defence, the FN-6 VSHORADS in 2014 began replacing the QW-1/QW-2 (Shamelessly renamed as Anza Mk.1/Anza Mk.2) MANPADS.
The PA’s other battlefield AAA assets include 35mm Oerlikon Contraves GDF-005 cannons with Ericsson Giraffe radars (200 distributed among eight Brigades), NORINCO-supplied P793 37mm cannons, RBS-70 Rayrider VSHORADS mounted on M-113 ‘Mouz’ tracked APCs of the Light Air-Defence Self-Propelled Regiments, plus the newer PG-99s supplied by NORINCO.
 
The PN’s three Marine Battalions have inducted into service three CS-RB1 HGR-106 radars, along with NORINCO-supplied 6.8-tonne PG-99 35mm towed anti-aircraft guns and Sichuan Military Electronics Industries Group Company (SEMIC)’s Type 825 fire-control radars.
The PG-99, a re-engineered Oerlikon-Contraves GDF-002 of early 1980ss vintage, is gas-operated and comes with a rate of fire of up to 1,100 rounds/minute, and the muzzle velocity is up to 1,175 metres/second, together with high aiming speed, low recoil force and small dispersion. Its engagement range is 4km. The PG-99 is mounted on a cradle which is designed to carry guns and the mobile platform. It contains the hydro-mechanical recoil mechanism, which absorbs the recoil forces. The lower part of the cradle comprises the two-axle chassis and the outriggers with the leveling spindles for four-point support in the firing positions. Raising and lowering the levelling spindles and raising the wheels are done electro-hydraulically, or manually in the case of power failure.
The gun can be traversed 360 degree and its elevation/depression angles are +92 degree/-5 degree. The Type 825 fire-control system can acquire targets at a range of up to 40km, track them at a maximum distance of 32km, and identify them at ranges of up to 6km.
Offensive Firepower Deliverance By PAF & PA
For its F-16 fleet, the PAF is authorised by the US to make use of only US-designed bombs and precision-guided munitions (PGM), like the GBU-12 LGB, Mk.82 high-.low-drag 500lb bombs, Mk.84 2,000lb bomb and PSD-1 cluster bomb. In addition, since 2006 the PAF has obtained 1,600 Enhanced Paveway GBU-12 (500lb) and GBU-24 bombs (2,000lb) with dual laser/GPS guidance, 800 Mk.82 500lb and Mk-84 2,000lb general-purpose bombs, 500 GBU-31/38 JDAM guidance kits and 700 BLU-109 2,000lb bunker-buster bombs, plus 500 AIM-120C5 AMRAAM and 500 AIM-9M-8/9 Sidewinder air combat missiles. 
However, when it comes to its Mirage-III/V and JF-17 fleets, the PAF has armed them with both US-origin bombs as well as China-supplied ordnance that includes the FT-6A ‘Takbir’ gliding PGM with a range-extension kit (REK), CS/BBS1 cluster bomb, 200kg low-drag runway-cratering bomb called ‘Hafr-2’ (NORINCO-built clone of the Matra Durandal), 250kg low-drag low-altitude fragmentation bomb, CS/BBF1 250kg cluster bomb, 500kg low-drag low-altitude fragmentation bomb, CS/BBR1 500kg aerial incendiary bomb, GB1 500kg LGB, Hijara cluster bomb (clone of the PSD-1), MAR-1 anti-radiation missile (100 of these, each with 25km-range were procured from Brazil), Hatf-8/Ra’ad 550km-range air-launched cruise missile and the Raptor TV-guided gliding PGM and its data-link pod (supplied by DENEL of South Africa), plus PL-5EII air combat missiles (for the Mirage-III/V and F-7P/PG fleets) and the PL-5EII and SD-10A air combat missiles for the JF-17s.
For target designation and weapons delivery, the F-16s make use of 37 Lockheed Martin-supplied AAQ-33 SNIPER ATP pods, while the JF-17s use the WMD-7 pods supplied by China’s CETC Int’l. For self-protection, the F-16s make use of 18 ITT Exelis-supplied ALQ-211(V)9 advanced integrated defensive EW pods (AIDEWS) without digital radio- frequency memory (DRFM) and 21 Northrop Grumman ALQ-131 Block-2 jammer pods without DRFM. The JF-17s are equipped with CETC-supplied KG-300G jammer pods.
For conducting tactical airborne reconnaissance, the PAF relies on seven DB-110 dual-band (visual/infra-red) LOng Range Oblique Photography (LOROP) pods that can be carried only by the F-16s. The first two were delivered in 2009 by Goodrich Corp, with another five worth $72 million following in 2012. They were delivered with two fixed ground stations and one mobile ground station, each equipped with one data-link receiving system (a total of four ground receiving data-links were delivered).
It was between mid-2008 and late December 2015 that the PAF’s F-16s were extensively used over the country’s troubled tribal regions in the remote Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) during low-intensity conflict (LIC) operations. The PAF flew more than 7,000 day/night strike-sorties in this period, with  5,500 strike-sorties alone being flown between May 2008 and late 2011 in support of the PA’s OP Sherdil in August 2008, OP Sirat-e-Mustaqeem in June 2008, OP Rah-e-Rast in May 2009, OP Brekhna, OP Eagle Swoop, OP Mountain Scanner and OP Mountain Sweep between June and September 2009, OP Rah-e-Nijaat in October 2009, OP Khwakh Ba De Sham in March 2010, and OP Koh-e-Sufaid in July 2011. When the PA turned its attention to South Waziristan in October 2009, the PAF conducted a seven-day air-strike campaign in advance. All three of its F-16 squadrons were put through a training programme over a four-month period. The US-supplied LGBs have been used in 80% of the PAF air-strikes. More than 12,600 bombs have been dropped to date, and 5,400 targets were destroyed. In support, the PAF also registered more than 700 F-16 recce sorties with the DB-110 pods.
However, operating extensively in support of ground-based LIC operations and in uncontested airspace is unlikely to be of much use when it comes to the issue of mounting deep-interdiction strike-sorties inside hostile airspace. Consequently, the PAF’s combat aircraft fleet will, at most, will be able to fly only air-defence and battlefield air-interdiction sorties during the next round of hostilities with India. In addition, the PAF has not yet been able to procure rangeless ACMI systems for increasing the proficiency of its combat pilots, despite continuing to make tall claims about having developed an indigenous rangeless ACMI system that never shows up during any of the regular air-exercises the PAF conducts!
Matters for the PAF will not improve until it takes delivery of up to 80 twin-engined FC-31 stealthy M-MRCAs. Now being developed by China’s Shenyang Aircraft Corp (SAC), the FC-31 has been designed to carry an eight-tonne weapons payload (including four precision-guided munitions totalling two tonnes internally and six tonnes being carried on six external hardpoints). It has a combat radius of 648 nautical miles (1,200km) and a maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) of 28 tonnes. The fuselage length is 17.5 metres, while the wingspan is 11.5 metres, and the height is 4.8 metres. The estimated maximum attainable speed is Mach 1.8, and the powerplant will comprise two 94kN thrust-rated Klimov RD-93MA turbofans imported off-the-shelf from Russia’s Moscow-based Chernyshev Machine-Building Plant, a division of the United Engines Corp (UEC). The RD-93MAs will incorporate full authority digital engine controls (FADEC) and a gearbox located at the bottom front-end of the engine casing. The RD-93MA will have a total technical a service-life of 4,000 hours.
It is for this reason that the PA has, since the early 1990s, acquired several types of conventional warhead-carrying ballistic and cruise missiles for use as deep fire-assault weapons capable of reaching the major cities of western, northern central India. And China Aerospace Science & Industry Corp (CASIC) has been Pakistan’s foremost supplier of such missiles, that currently arm the PA’s 21 Artillery Division HQed at Pano Aqil in Sindh province (equipped with two Babur LACM Battalions—the 23rd and 26th Missile Group that are stored at a purpose-built facility just outside the PAF’s Masroor air base--at a rate of one Battery every year starting 2009), with each having four Batteries each with six TELs housing 24 LACMs and 72 reloads and 12 other supporting vehicles, all manned by 175 personnel); and the Sargodha-based 22 Artillery Division.
Pakistan’s quest for acquiring conventional warhead-carrying missiles began in September 1988, when Islamabad inked a contract with Beijing for procuring some 80 solid-fuelled single-stage M-11 (Hatf-3/Ghaznavi/CSS-7 Mod 1/DF-11) 280km-range TBMs carried and launched from MAZ-543 8 x 8 vehicles, and 34 600km-range M-9 (Hatf-4/Shaheen-1/CSS-6/DF-15) TBMs. These missiles were developed by CPMIEC and China Metallurgical Equipment Corp (MECC), assembled by the Sanjiang Aerospace Group in Yuanan, 210km west of Beijing in Hubei province, and the entire contract was serviced by CASIC under the supervision of China’s state-owned Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence (COSTIND). By December 1988, China commenced deliveries of M-9 and M-11 TBMs, with all remaining deliveries being concluded by mid-1992.
By early 1990, Pakistan had inked a $516 million turn-key deal with CASIC to establish localised industrial facilities for licence-building a total of 64 solid-fuelled missiles such as: the Hatf-3/Ghaznavi/M-11/CSS-7 Mod 1/DF-11 (with a CEP of 250 metres and carrying a 500kg conventional warhead), Hatf-4/Shaheen-1/M-9/CSS-6/DF-15 (with a CEP of 50 metres when carrying a 1-tonne conventional warhead), and another 64 Hatf-2/Abdali/P-12 precision-guided tactical missiles each with a 180km-range, CEP of 15 metres and carrying a 500kg conventional warhead. While China agreed to supply the jigs, lathes and moulding/machining/milling tooling required for fabricating the missile sub-assemblies, it insisted that Pakistan independently source raw materials like Grade 18Ni (250) maraging steel, nono steel, powder materials for flame- and plasma-sprayed coatings, corrosion-resistant neodymium iron boron magnets, ablative liners, beryllium-aluminum alloys that can be cast into complex shapes that need little or no machining; plus propellant-related materials like aluminum oxide powder, acrylic acid, ammonium perchlorate, polybutadiene, monomethyl hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide.
On August 22, 1994 Pakistan paid CASIC $15 million for a contract under which the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) 2nd Artillery Corps was to train Pakistan Army personnel to deploy and launch the Abdali, Shaheen-1 and Ghaznavi TBMs. A month later, a PLA team of instructors arrived at Sargodha. Concurrently, work began on building the instrumented 200-hectare Flight Test Range at Sonmiani, 75km north of Karachi; Sandhak, 50km east of the Iranian border in Baluchistan province; and at the Ratla Range off the Siwalik Hills west of Dera Ghazi Khan. In July 1998, the PA conducted its first launch drills involving a Missile Group of Shaheen-1 TBMs at the Deosai Plains in PoK.
Between January and March 1989, the then Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto had decreed that an IRBM be developed by the Kahuta-based Dr A. Q. Khan Research Laboratories (KRL) with North Korean assistance be called Al Zulfikar. The liquid-fuelled single-stage Hatf-5/Ghauri-1/Nodong-1 IRBMs of North Korean origin was inducted into service on January 8, 2003 under the 47th Missile Group of the PA’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC). The Ghauri-1’s pre-surveyed launch pads and related underground command-and-control bunkers are located at the Kirana Hills in Punjab province. In June 1992, KRL and PA officials visited North Korea’s Sanum-dong guided-missile development centre to examine the Nodong-1. Between August 4 and 7 the same year, North Korea’s then Deputy Premier-Foreign Minister Kim Yong-nam travelled to Pakistan to discuss the licenced-assembly of Nodong-1s armed with conventional warheads. On May 29 and 30, 1993 Pakistani and Iranian officials were present for Pyongyang’s test-firing of one Nodong-1. On December 30 the same year, PM Bhutto travelled to Pyongyang and struck a deal to purchase technical design data of the Nodong-1 and use it to indigenously develop the Al Zulfikar. In September 1994, a delegation led by Choe Hui-chong, the then Chairman of North Korea’s State Commission of Science & Technology travelled to Pakistan and visited KRL. During this visit, Choe inked a $220 million deal to provide Pakistan with fuel tanks and liquid-fuelled rocket engines for the Al Zulfikar IRBM, which by then had been renamed as the Hatf-5/Ghauri-1, along with 12 fully-assembled Nodong-1s and related launch-control systems valued at $60 million, plus their fixed-base launch facilities in the Kirana Hills off the PAF’s sprawling air base at Sargodha. These items were produced by Pyongyang’s 4th Machine Industry Bureau of the 2nd Economic Committee. By April 1996, Changgwang Sinyong Corp (aka North Korea Mining Development Trading Corp) began delivering 12 Ghauri-1s in fully knocked-down condition, plus equipment for assembling them at a new customised facility built by KRL at Kahuta. The Ghauri-1’s land-mobile MAZ-543TLM wheeled transporter-erector-launchers were supplied off-the-shelf by the Sungni General Automotive Factory of the 2nd Machine Industry Bureau. At the same time, work began on the construction of related missile test-firing infrastructure near Nowshera in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, at Dera Ghazi Khan (in the Dallana tribal area near the Suleiman Range), and the Mashhood Test Firing Range at Tilla Jogian in Punjab’s Jhelum district, with a monitoring station located at Basti Jarh, some 6km from Dera Ghazi Khan along the Dera-Quetta road. In December 1997, Pakistan’s then COAS Gen Jehangir Karamat, accompanied by the then Director of KRL Dr Abdul Qadeer ‘Bhopali’ Khan, visited North Korea’s 125 Factory where the Ghauri-1/Nodong-1s were being built. Following this, North Korean IL-76MD transports began making about three flights a month to Chaklala until January 1998, when the number of flights increased three-fold. These flights ferried in technical experts and telemetry crews to KRL between February and March 1998. In September 1998, construction began with North Korea’s civil engineering assistance of six above-ground fixed-base Ghauri-1 storage/assembly/launch sites, along with related hardened underground command-and-control centres in the Kirana Hills.
By May 2002, operational Ghaznavis with conventional warheads were deployed along the Deosai Plateau, Gujranwala and Mangla, while the Shaheen-1s were deployed to pre-surveyed launch pads in the Deosai Plateau. The Ghaznavi TBMs were formally inducted into service on February 22, 2004. Present plans call for the PA to deploy three Missile Groups each of the Abdali, Ghaznavi, Ghauri-1 and Shaheen-1 (grouped under two separate Artillery Brigades (these being the Masroor-based Missile Brigade South comprising Missile Groups 25, 35 and 40 and the Sargodha-based Missile Brigade North comprising the 14, 28 and 47 Missile Groups) during hostilities, with all such missiles being armed with conventional HE or FAE-based warheads. Each such Group comprises 18 TELs each with one ready-to-fire missile and 54 missile reloads. A Group can also be divided into three Batteries (with six TELs and six missiles plus 24 reloads). Presently, Missile Groups of the Abdali, Ghaznavi and Shaheen-1 are located at Sargodha and Manglam while the 180km-range Hatf-9/Nasr MBRLs are stored at the PA’s Pasrur cantonment.
Increasing Differentials
And yet, the PAF suffers from several shortcomings that rend to ensure that in a future round of all-out hostilities against the IAF, the PAF will succumb within a period of eight days. These include:
1) The unavailability of the required quantum of spares-support from the OEMs of the Dassault Mirage-III/V and Chengdu F-7P/PG fleets of combat aircraft, since these are no longer in series-production and they have also been phased out of service in both France and China. Consequently, fast-moving rotables and consumables are quite hard to come by on short-notice, due to which the PAF has no choice but to conserve the flightworthy lives of such aircraft by reducing their peacetime training flight sorties and this in turn reduces aircrew proficiency. Thus, the PAF can today mobilise no more than 17 full-strength flightworthy combat aircraft squadrons at short notice.
2) Series-production of the JF-17A Thunder L-MRCA by China’s Chengdu Aerospace Corp (CAC) continues at an excruciatingly slow rate due to greater priority accorded by CAC to the series-production of the J-10B M-MRCAs for both the PLA Air Force and the PLA Naval Aviation.
3) The refusal by the US to supply air-to-ground all-weather precision-guided munitions (PGM) like AGM-65 Maverick or Brimstone or sensor-fuzed cluster munitions or AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARM) for the PAF’s F-16s—all of which can be used with devastating effect during battlefield air-interdiction missions.
4) The US refusal to supply Raytheon AIM-9X Sidewinder within-visual-range air-to-air missiles for the PAF’s P-16s, which renders the Boeing-supplied Joint Helmet-Mounted Cueing System totally worthless.
5) China’s surprising unwillingness to supply the PAF with the more advanced PL-8 or PL-9C within-visual-range air-to-air missiles for the PAF’s JF-17As.
6) The PAF’s unsuccessful efforts to service-induct MR-SAMs like the LY-80E and its reluctant approval for the PA’s desire to operate such MR-SAM Regiments.
7) The PAF’s unsuccessful efforts to date to procure twin-engined M-MRCAs required for mounting low-level deep-interdiction sorties.
8) The PAF being forced to deploy its AEW & CS platforms as far west as possible (especially in Balochistan) in order to acquire some depth, due to Pakistan’s peculiar elongated geography. This prevents the PAF from conducting offensive airborne battle management taskings deep within Indian airspace, thereby forcing its AEW & CS platforms to perform only air-defence-related airborne battle management taskings.
9) Lastly, and most importantly, Pakistan’s steadily sliding economic condition and its growing expenses on securing the Durand Line along its western frontier, both of which have forced Pakistan’s armed forces to reduce their war wastage reserve (WWR) stockpiles that will not last beyond EIGHT days of intense, multi-front warfighting in an all-out war scenario.
And it is with all of the above that the PAF will have to confront an IAF that, by 2020, will comprise 32 combat aircraft squadrons and 39 Helicopter Units. Presently, the IAF can boast of three Sqns with MiG-29s now being upgraded to UPG standard, nine squadrons with MiG-21 Bison (reduced to seven by 2020), two squadrons with MiG-21Ms (to be decommissioned later this year), four squadrons with Jaguar IS of which 64 are being upgraded to DARIN-3 standard, one squadron with Jaguar IM for maritime strike, 15 squadrons with Su-30MKI H-MRCAs, three squadrons with Mirage 2000H/TH that are now being upgraded, two squadrons with MiG-27UPG, one squadron with MiG-27Ms, and half-a-squadron with Tejas Mk.1 L-MRCAs. By 2024, all the MiG-21 Bisons, MiG-27UPGs and MiG-27Ms will be decommissioned, while one additional Tejas Mk.1 and two Dassault Rafale M-MRCA squadrons will be raised, thus leaving the IAF with 30 combat aircraft squadrons against a 20-squadron combat aircraft fleet strength of the PAF.
 
The IAF’s force-mix is quite lop-sided today and will remain so till the end of this decade, since close to 40% of IAF’s authorised combat force will be comprised of Su-30MKI H-MRCAs, 20% of upgraded M-MRCAs like the Mirage 2000Is and MiG-29UPG, and the rest with platforms like the Jaguar IS, MiG-27UPGs, MiG-27Ms and MiG-21 Bisons. The shortfalls are particularly critical in the tactical interdiction and battlefield air-interdiction arenas. 
The shortfalls could well have been non-existent had the IAF in 2005 decided to undertake a deep upgrade for its 125 licence-built MiG-27Ms (equipping five squadrons) and 95 imported MiG-23BNs (equipping three squadrons) by re-engining each of them with AL-31F turbofans and equipping them with DARIN 3-type mission avionics, which would have extended their service lives by 20 years.
In terms of force-multiplier combat-supp[ort systems, the IAF presently possesses only three A-50I PHALCON and two EMB-145I ‘Netra’ AEW & CS platforms, plus six IL-78MKI aerial refuellers. For standoff recce, two ELBIT Systems-built CONDOR-2 LOROP pods were procured in Februaty 2009 for the Jaguar IS, followed by another two worth $82 million in April 2017 for the Rafales. Each CONDOR-2 system includes the pod itself, a wide-band data-link, and fixed and transportable image exploitation stations and their support equipment. Also acquired in 2007 were four ELTA Systems-built EL/M-2060P SAR pods for the Su-30MKI, and two RecceLite pods for the Tejas Mk.1.
As for target designation pods, the MoD concluded a contract in November 1996 for procurinmg an initial 15 RAFAEL-supplied Litening-2s at a cost of Rs.95 crore ($27.11 million( for fitment on 30 Jaguar IS and five Mirage-2000H/TH aircraft at a total cost of Rs.125 crore. Of these, 10 pods were later transferred for use by the Su-30MKIs. In 2015 another 164 Litening-G4I pods were ordered for use by Rafale (14 for the 36 Rafales), Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000N and Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 aircraft. and Tejas Mk.1/Mk.1A.
As for EW pods, the MoD ordered 10 THALES-supplied Barem pods for the Mirage-2000H/TH fleet in 1988. In February 1996, the MoD contracted ELTA Systems for the procurement of 92 EL/L-8222 pods (82 for the IAF and 10 for the Indian Navy), at a total cost of $84.84 million, or Rs.280 crore. Of the 82 systems, 50 were contracted for the MiG-21 Bison and 32 for Jaguar IS (as internally-mounted suites). Another 90 pods were ordered in 2009 for the Su-30MKI fleet.
The IAF’s 36 Rafales, built to F3-04T-standard, will each incorporate two RAFAEL-built X-Guard fibre-optic towed-decoys that can be released when the aircraft approaches an area saturated with ground-based air-defence weapons, or when threats from inbound SAMs or AAMs are detected by the Spectra EW suite. In the latter case, the most suitable countermeasure will be transmitted to the X-Guard by the Spectra. The X-Guard will then lure the attacking missiles away by creating an attractive false target signal that will divert the homing missile from the Rafale. The X-Guard is designed to defeat advanced tracking techniques, including modern ‘Monopulse and Look on Receive-Only’ (LORO) techniques. The decoy is retrievable and can be deployed several times during a mission.
Coming to PGMs, the IAF has to date received 200 of the 17km-range, 520kg KAB-500Kr TV-guided rockets, 2,500 Griffin-3 LGBs, 1,500 KAB-1500LG-FE LGBs, 300 of the 690kg 30km-range Kh-29TE TV-guided missiles, 100 of the 1,130kg, 150km-range PopeyeLite missiles with imaging infra-red seeker fire-and-update mode plus 20 Pegasus data-link pods, 250 of the 550kg, 65km-range Spice-1000 (Smart Precise Impact and Cost Effective guidance kit) missiles, 200 of the 600kg, 110km-range Kh-31P Krypton ARMs, and 200 of the  40km-range, 315lg Kh-25MP ARMs.
Slated for delivery in future are 400 of the 100km-range SAAW gliding directed-energy weapons mounted in quad-racks; 50 BrahMos-A supersonic multi-role air-launched cruise missiles; 150 of the 1,300kg, 550km-range SCALP-EG subsonic  LACMs and 100 of the 268kg, 93km-range ALARM ARMs (the last two for the Rafales); and more than 6,000 locally-developed 500kg Precision Guided High-Speed Low-Drag (PGHSLD) bombs (whose flight-qualifications began on  May 22, 2017). Two PGHSLDs, one with sensors, telemetry, data logger for carriage trials and anoother with GPS and telemetry were carried out by the IAF’s 32 Wing AF Station in Jodhpur. Using guiding fins and a GPS-aided and FOG-based inertial navigation system, a PGHSLD can land within 13 metres (42 feet) of its target. In future the PGHSLD will be equipped with wings that unfold in flight to triple the range from 15 miles (24km) to over 45 miles (72km). The modular nature of such a smart kit means that it can be easily upgraded as technology improves and options such as improved laser sensors, GPS jamming immunity and an all-weather radar sensors can be added.
The air-launched BrahMos-A and its successor, the BrahMos-NG (now under development and slated for service-entry by 2023), when used in conjunction with the SIVA HADF pod, are the principal weapons to be employed against hostile AEW & CS platforms. Equipped with an imaging X-band SAR seeker, such missiles when launched from two different directions at any airborne AEW & CS platform, can cruise at altitudes higher than those of such platforms and can zero in on their targets through a lofted trajectory in the terminal flight phase, almost in a top-attack mode.
By early 2021, the IAF will begin receiving the first of more than 4,000 Nirbhay ground-launched LACMs. They will be joining the IA’s existing one Regiment of BrahMos-1 Block 1 and two Regiments of BrahMos Block 2 supersonic LACMs, plus a single Squadron of BrahMos-1 Block 3 top-attack LACMs of the IAF. Each BrahMos-1 Battery includes five mobile autonomous launchers (MAL) each with three vertical-launch cannisters, and four Batteries make up a Regiment, accounting for about 70 missiles.
The IA’s 861 Regiment (with BrahMos-1 Block I was raised on June 21, 2007 at a cost of $83 million, while the 862 Regiment (BrahMos-1 Block 2) was raised in March 2012, and these were followed by the  863 Regiment (BrahMos-1 Block 2) and 864 Regiment (BrahMos-1 Block 2) at a cost of Rs. 4,300 crore ($644 million). All these Regiments are an integral part of the IA’s 40th and 41st Artillery Divisions.
The procurement of more than 200 ground-launched BrahMos-1 Block-3 LACMs for the IAF was cleared by India’s Cabinet Committee on National Security (CCS) on October 19, 2012 at the cost of $919 million. On December 9, 2014 the IAF service-inducted the BrahMos-1 Technical Position00a centre that will house the missiles and launchers for the IAF. While the IA’s BrahMos-1s are to be used against static/fixed installations like transportation nodes and battlefield POL and weapons storage dumps (with target selection being done by the Surveillance and Target Acquisition Fire-Control Centres (SATA-FCC) by the Artillery Division HQs, the IAF’s BrahMos-1 Block 3s and Nirbhays will be employed for the destruction of air bases and storage areas/launch-pads of ballistic/cruise missiles deep inside enemy territory, such as the PA’s 1st Strategic Missile Group at Mangla, 2nd Strategic Missile Group at Sargodha, and the 3rd Strategic Missile Group at Khuzdaar.
In fact, this is exactly what former Indian National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon had alluded to in his book, titled Choices: Inside the Making of India’s Foreign Policy, where he had opined that “Circumstances are conceivable in which India might find it useful to strike first, for instance, against a nuclear weapon state that had declared that it would certainly use its weapons, and if India was certain that an adversary’s nuclear weapons launch was imminent.”
What this means in reality is that if the enemy’s declared intent is of using the nuclear weapons option not at the last moment or as a last resort, but when the IA’s integrated battle groups (IBG) begin entering Pakistani territory, then to India this means that her military forces will have to strike, with superior conventional force, at Pakistan’s nuclear warhead-armed ballistic/cruise missile storage/launch bases first, and destroy them, simultaneously or even before the IA’s armour-heavy Strike Corps can reach their wartime staging areas. But unfortunately, Menon’s opinions were totally misinterpreted by the likes of a certain Dr Vipin Narang of the US-based MIT, who have wrongly and perhaps mischievously claimed that Menon’s opinions are proof of India’s abandonment of the ‘No First Use’ policy with regard to strategic nuclear deterrence.
(To be concluded)

195 comments:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Pakistan Gets US$1 Billion Loan from China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJisDtPytcs

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/get-leaner-and-meaner-defence-panel-tells-armed-forces/articleshow/64036066.cms

akhil said...

Dear Sir,
In all probability my comment won’t be published. But I write to you not for the gallery here. You said a soldier who only serves for 15 years shouldn’t get lifetime pension and so for officers who only serve 40 years. Firstly, you never questioned the pensions of the Civil services babu who has endlessly let down the country. You never questioned the pension of the politicians who for even one day of service as an MP get lifetime pension. Secondly the defence pension bill, which I am sure you are aware, majorly constitutes pensions of defence civilians and not soldiers. Please don’t mislead the common man. Next, to keep a leaner and a fitter army a soldier is retired at 15 years of service unlike CPMF. And we see the difference in their performance and capabilities. He doesn’t want to retire in middle age after giving the prime of his life.
Lastly, it’s always the military who has been holding the pants for the nation and it’s always the military who is unfairly targettet for they don’t have unions and don’t do tamashas which this country is so used to.
We least expected such half baked ideas from you.

Gopu said...

@ Rajesh Mishra

http://www.conspiracyschool.com/blog/2002-iraqi-intel-reported-wahhabis-are-jewish-origin
http://www.conspiracyschool.com/sites/default/files/Iraqi%20Intel%20-%20The%20Emergence%20of%20Wahhabism%20and%20its%20Historical%20Roots_0.pdf

Some recommended readings for the weekend. Reminds me of how the British used to compose fake Sanskrit texts in an attempt to control the subcontinent.

Interesting how Ashkenazi categorically deny that they are from the Khazars and the Kingdom of Edom, and instead pretend that they are somehow direct ancestors of the Kingdoms of Judaea and Israel.

-----

https://www.quora.com/Was-there-a-Brahmin-massacre-5000+-killed-in-India-after-godse-killed-Gandhi

Nasty tricks Congress has been up to after partition exposed above. I'm surprised no one has yet bothered to cover the deep political corruption between the Soviet Union and the Congress/CPI parties in India.

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Indian-government-officials-so-arrogant

Interesting insights from Adwesh Singh. It's been 5 years of NDA rule, and not much has changed on the ground, unfortunately.

https://www.quora.com/Do-Muslims-in-Albania-eat-pork-or-not

I wonder why Muslims in India can not be more like their Albanian friends (not brothers, since South Asians are not exactly related to Albanians contrary to whatever the local Mullah says...):

If the proponents of the 2 nation theory are to believed (well, now 3 nation theory since short, dark people are considered as a lesser Muslim "brother"), shouldn't all the crazies have moved to Pakistan by now? Why can't BBQ stalls exist in UP?

https://www.quora.com/Do-the-Chinese-really-eat-every-part-of-the-pig

Meanwhile, perhaps cross-culturual exchanges in CPEC will finally introduce Pakistanis to Chinese Szechuan BBQ Pork.

@ Prasun

Taking Muzafarabad sector from the PA is good, but what is the status in Gilgit? How quickly can the ISI flush militants and Taliban into this region? If militant manage to stall the operational objectives, this could cause serious problems. The only way this campaign can be succesfull is if the entirety of POK is recovered.

Are teams of 12 Garuds ready to fight hundreds of tribal militants, similar to US SOF in Afghanistan last decade?

rad said...


hi prasun
Is gagan shakti the brain child of dhanoa ? if so he should be commended. Dhanoa seems to be a tough guy when it comes to pak and is no afraid to speak hi mind.

is it not wiser not to reveal we did duck drops exercises so that the enemy will not plan its defenses so ?

who made the active seeker for the akash missile ? would it not Be prudent to make a IIR seeker for the akash so that the 2nd follow up missile would silently home in rather than give out its presence by going active?

does the range of the missile gets xtended due to the active seeker by optimum interception trajectory given the same fuel capacity?

will the akash 2 have a longer range due to that or they are increasing the range due to better optimization of hardware and software.?

how far is the us sanction going to hurt us , it seems to already do ?



Unknown said...

This is excellent prasun. Now the most important question. What time you think such operations may most likely be authorised by the government? Is it just a training exercise for the sake of future eventuality which practically the decision makers would not like to order. Please advise given the present set of events on most probable dates for such campaigns. As such Pakistan is already on the back foot across the Loc, so hope this does not turn out as one of the many exercises that are regularly conducted.

Thanks

Tubs

Sujoy Majumdar said...

Prasun Da,

I have a question about Modi's China visit. Several commentators are saying that as China goes rich, a lot of industries are moving from it to countries where wages are low and this is an opportunity India should capitalize. Ergo, Modi is trying to get these Chinese entrepreneurs to set up manufacturing plants, companies in India.

Is this true ?

Thank You

Anik said...

Indian Army is currently carrying out Ex Vijay Prahar. 20000 soldiers are part of this excercise.


Ex #VijayPrahar. Strike formations of the Sapta Shakti Command rehearsed offensive maneuvers involving attack helicopters operating in conjunction with Tanks to deliver & destroy the enemy armour. Christened as 'The Air Cavalry', the concept was tried in the exercise.#IndianArmy

https://twitter.com/adgpi/status/992721215205801984

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKHIL: It isn you who has been misled by your own erroneous assumptions. Firstly, I had never singled out military pensions, but had stated ‘pension-related r4eforms’. Secondly, which component makes up the majority of pensioners for the MoD? Civlians or military? Pension-related reforms have nothing to do with neither Defence Pensions Bill or only the armed forces, but are reqd across the board for all those who had drawn & are drawing salaries from the MoD. It’s fairly easy to blame ‘Babus’ for every evil (mostly inspired from Bollywood flicks) & those who engage in such blamegaming don’t have the intellect to realise that even the bureaucracy receives instructions from their civilian political decision-makers. Bureaucrats neither devise policy measures nor do they direct policy-making. They only implement policies. And to claim that the military has been the only one to hold the nation’s pantrs is utterly wrong & totally derogatory & is a total insult to all other civilians from other walks of life (including the state police forces & CAPFs do do thankless jobs 24/7). Painting in broad brushstrokes always makes one gloss over the problems/deficiencies. Instead, do take the time & make the effort to go into the finer details in an objective manner, instead of getting bogged down in sentimental melodrama.

To GOPU: Did the local militants or foreign terrorists achieve any degree of success at all when OP Vijay was underway in mid-1999? In reality, during full-scale & high-intensity wars there’s absolutely no scope for any militant or terrorist to engage in any meaningful activity since they will face instant & brutal liquidation & therefore they are active only during peacetime. Historically, this has been the case since October 1947. And that’s because militants & terrorists are never taught to engage any conventional military force through positional warfare tactics. The special operations-related operations rehearsals carried out during such exerc ises are never deemed to be full-scale efforts, but are instead proof-of-concepts aimed at validating & refining the tactics that can easily be up-scaled if reqd. Such upscaled tactics are then regularly exercised throughout the year & therefore they don’t get mentioned/highlighted.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: The CAS of the IAF leads an institution that is directly answerable to the executive branch of the Govt of India. Consequently, planning & conducting such tri-services exercises cannot eb achieved by an y one individual or institution, but is a collective effort, meaning the green-light for conducting this exercise obviously flowed from the directives given by the Union Cabinet Committee on National Security after the conduct of last year’s combined commanders’ annual conference. Leading manufacturer of seekers in India now is VEM Technologies. Range extension comes not from seeker sensitivity, but from the use of higher energetic propellants that can be accommodated in the existing sustainer compartment of the SAM.

To UNKNOWN: VMT. Exercises of suc h a scale & expense cannot be undertaken unless there’s political sanction for undertaking actual AirLand campaigns of this nature in future. It will take at least 60 days for the lessons from from such exercises to percolate down & become SOPs. Consequently, for all intents & purposes, there now exists a firm, irreversible POLICY DIRECTIVE regarding the future status of PoK. Timing of the actual conduct of operations is totally dependent on the geo-political circumstances that can change at any given time.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: That’s true, but is far easier said than done, because in order to excel in competitive manufacturing, one requires the following: flexible labour laws, ready availability of skilled human resources, integrated manufacturing facilities like SEZs where the entire industrial eco-system is located in one area, and a highly efficient land/sea transportation lanes of communications. In all these areas, India requires a lot more of capacity-building. These will help you understand matters better:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Jfrzkmzyc&t=126s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fll7X2KZeDI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKseBx1YPgo

sbm said...

A most interesting and informative piece. How would these capabilities work in the event of having to cope with a Chinese military assault? Would the IAF be able to sustain effective operations against them? On a related point, with the emergency purchases made over the last few years how to the current WWRs in ammunition and spares stand for the IA and IAF. My calculations suggest perhaps close to 28(I) will soon be achieved. It seems that despite the budget, spares and ammunition has priority. I also note that your comments on the pension issue are spot on. This is more so since the reserve liability is rarely enforced except in wartime.

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

A few questions about DefExpo 2018

1. Ukranian company Spets Techno Export released a press release during DefExpo 2018, stating that they are creating a new battle tank for the Indian Army. Which tank are they referring to ?

http://spetstechnoexport.com/en/news/86

2. Garden Reach signed a deal with Elbit during DefExpo 2018 for the construction of Unmanned Surface Vessel (USVs). Are they expecting orders for USVs for the Indian Navy?

www.grse.in/page_news.php?page_id=129

3. Mazagon Docks & General Atomics signed a ToT for propulsion/power generation systems. Will you please state what exactly are these ?

Thanks,

VIKRAM

Intolerant Person said...

1.Sir what would be our response incase they involve usage of TNWs?
2.What would be the role pf IN in case such offense is launched in future?

Anonymous said...

Sir, A few questions

Does the IAF have electronic attack variant of the Su-30MKI and the Mig-29s? Does the IAF even have a dedicated EW squadron?

DARE was supposed to be developing a wingtip mounted HBJ for the Su-30mki. Do you have any info on it? China made some recent progress. http://www.janes.com/article/79784/images-show-j-15-fighter-fitted-with-wingtip-ew-pods

And any progress on IAF's long awaited special mission aircrafts?

Thanks In advance,
Ashish

ashish gautam said...

Unanswered questions from last thread
Sir, since IL-76 Have started growing old, is IAF planning any replacement of these big boys? Am asking coz C17 production line has also stopped so which modern aircraft of weight carrying capacity >=50tons will b ideal for IAF?
2) Do you see any major military action/war in Indian subcontinent by period of 2025??

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: VMT. The main question that should be asked is: whether China has the intent & capability to launch military assaults of any type against India? As far as intent goes, China has everything to lose by unilaterally launching any military offensive against anybody at a time when it wants to cultivate its image as a responsible & dependable world power for at least the next 15 years. In terms of capability, NOT ONE of the airports located in central or southern TAR has a dedicated co-located air base. These airports can only accommodate MRCAs on a seasonal basis, not permanently, nor are they equipped with all infrastructure necessary for a full-fledged air base capable of churning sustained sortie-rates. There are only 2 dedicated static SAM sites at Lhasa Gonggar & Xizage. The nearest air bases are in Xinjiang & Sichuan & Yunnan from where deep-strikes inside India cannot be mounted. As for land forces, there are only 3 LAC-specific mechanized/motorized brigades. Can they pose any meaningful threat to India anywhere along the LAC? WWR stockpiles will reach the 20-day mark this year but only for about 70% of the ammo-types & fuze-types.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) They are developing a GMBT, but not for India. It is meant for export worldwide. 2) I had already stated a few years earlier about the concept of inmanned surface vessels capable of mine-hunting as well as serving as ASW searchers when equipped with dunking sonars. 3) It is for all-electric propulsion that does away with reduction gearboxes.

To INTOLERANT PERSON: Usage of TNWs in which real-estate? Inside Pakistan’s own territory or inside Indian territory? 2) Depends on the rules of engagement as directed by the executive branch of the GoI. I will explain that in the follow-on paras that will be uploaded in a steady manner in this thread, which is in fact a continuation of the thread titled WHY CHHAMB MATTERS.

To ASHISH: 1) No. 2) DARE is developing wide-band escort jammers (for SEAD role) mounted on wingtips & they can also be used by other MRCAs when mounted under the wing or belly. The KJ-600 jammer from China’s CETC is meant for self-protection & is not for escort jamming.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: 1) LoLz! What do you mean by ‘old’? Didn’t a DC-3 Dakota recently make a ferry-flight from the UK to India? How was that possible when the aircraft was 80 years old? As I’ve explained several times before, in aviation parlance, there’s no such thing as old/obsolete aircraft. Either an aircraft is serviceable & airworthy, or it isn’t. That’s how licenced aircraft engineers worldwide refer to the status of an aircraft. Existing IL-76MDs can always be upgraded. Their airframes can be zero-lifed, new PS-90A turbofans can be installed, as can glass-cockpit displays, as is the case with the IL-76MD-90 variant. So once again, no more mention of terms like old/obsolete. Leave the ‘desi’ bandalbaazes to use such terms & reveal their own idiocracy. 2) That too has been answered/clarified several times before.

sbm said...

Thank you for such a thorough answer. I wonder what China’s WWR stands at? The strong impression I get is that even if they wanted a war, they would not be able to defeat India even in a longish conflict. Would that be fair? If so, why is China’s threat so hyped?

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Dada from your response to Ashih Gautam, it makes me remember the very old post by me .. making mig21 as autonomous weapon carrier , i think at that time you have mentioned that the turbofans for the mig21 are not in shape and not in position for reservicing .. what can be the alternative for the airframes being retired can we induce life to them as autonomous weapon carrier which would launch BVR's or Standoff weapons which can be augmented to already available once in the air !!

akali singh singh said...

sirji, did iaf use DRDO NETRA AEW&CS system in ex Gagan shakti?

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
Very interesting and informative article.THANK YOU DADA.Finally there is "ray of hope".

Ludwig said...

Hello Sir, Again a very enlightening article,
1) I would love to pick your thoughts on this http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/foreign-rifles-trump-make-in-india-army-shutting-down-high-tech-project-118050401359_1.html
I find it very hard to believe that Indian army would do such a thing.
2) Also what kind of vessels do you think the new Quad Brahmos launcher will be used on? Any progress on SRSAMs for Navy?
http://www.dailypioneer.com/business-and-finance/landt-defence-to-produce-quad-launcher-for-brahmos-missiles.html

Indian said...

Sir an unanswered question from last thread. Will the Indian army accept Arjun tanks the way IAF now seems to accept LCA. If they do can we expect total indigenization of our armour in the coming decades?

ashish gautam said...

Ok sir.
As u told earlier that NAL is mainly to develop basic aerodynamic research & to support for development of any new design. My question is that in India have any of labs started working to develop basic aerodynamics etc for high speed helicopter designs like those being developed by US & Russians???
Dual main rotors & propeller type tail rotors.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

You have exposed everything. Now pakisPak can understand the plan of Indian armed forces. And it will win. LoL!!! Joking.

Intolerant Person said...

1.I was taking abput usage of TNWs on Indian Soil....
2.Now this is a fresh news:
https://timesofislamabad.com/04-May-2018/friendly-country-intelligence-agents-caught-in-karachi-sources?version=amp&__twitter_impression=true

I don't know why but I have feeling tgat Iranians are cooking something w.r.t Pakistan,especially in Karachi.You wrote about Uzair Baloch in past but still the whole picture is little bit of unclear.
3.I saw pics of Malaysian SF.Even they were using M4 derivative.Why can't out forces use M4 for counter-insurgency?

Anonymous said...

Prasun, as an expert u have mentioned about all what iaf and ia will do but as per u what and how will paf and pa counter......
And what aspects of the pa and paf fight and to what extent.... and how extreme will be the fight...
What do u think pa and paf be doing after this exercise...
Regards,
Sj

Kapil said...

Is it true? This article suggests that India backed out at last minute because of presence of Chinese special forces in Maldives https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/china-india-wayang-kulit-may-not-last

Also, daughter of ex-President of Maldives says, "India has failed us" idrw.org/india-failed-us-daughter-of-former-president-of-maldives/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: China does not have to worry so much about WWR since it does not have any immediate threats & therefore war preparedness reqd for countering immediate military threats is not reqd. In addition, China’s military-industrial complex has made apprecviable investments over the years in industrial robotics that have since replaced human beings in the munitions production factories. Consequently, production rates can be swiftly ramped up for ammo for small arms & field/rocket artillery systems/ I have had extensive chats with OFB officials over the past 2 years on the issue of industrial automation & had even proposed to both the MoD & OFB HQ that the OFB team up with some higher educationbal institutions for co-developing a range of industrial robotics solutions for mass-producing ammunition, & also with engineering outfits like HMT for doing product-engineering of such solutions.

To TECHJNOLOGY. PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: LoLz! What you’re proposing is a feat not even accomplished by the likes of the US. How to induce life in a platform whose propulsion system’s service-life has already expired & for whioch no one in the world is interested in developing new-generation propulsion systems?

To AKALI SINGH: Yes. Why are you repeating your surname? Any specific reason for the added emphasis? Reminds me of folks who like to repeat their names, like Boutros Boutros Ghali!

To LUDWIG: 1) Had already explained it several times before: BMS cannot precede the TCS. Unless the TCS surfaces, the BMS cannot. Only those ‘desi’ bandalbaazes who don’t understand or appreciate the laws of physics can write such shit. All over the world BMS & TCS networks use common radio sets. So if the TCS component isn’t first finalised, the BMS network cannot be operationalised. 2) BrahMos Aerospace has always shown one vessel in scale-model with such quad-launchers during numerous expos, i.e. the 56.92-metre, 477-tonne Project 1241.1 FAC-Ms (three built) powered by MTU diesel-engines. Thje quad-launchers are meant for use by BrahMos-NG, & not BrahMos-1. The photo of the quad-launcher clearly shows the smaller & narrower dimensions of the tubes.

To INDIAN: Had already answered that several times before & even had a thread about it explaining how Dunamatics is helping the CVRDE to develop a lighter Arjun Mk.2 using HINS as the principal raw material for the hull & turret. So why ask such questions again & again & again??? And what is meant by ‘total indigenisation of armour’? Indigenisation in terms of IPR & product development or in terms of material content?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Labs can only design using CAD siftware. Development is another matter altogether since it involves the creation & usage of wind-tunnels and test-cells. Hence no industrial entity wull ever invest in such infrastructure. Instead, they will use such facilities available with NAL & CSIR.

To ASD: LoLz! I haven’t even started explaining what the IAF’s options are. Thus far, I have only contextualized the forthcoming analysis 8in order to provide chronological depth & perspective. And needless to say, India’s adversaries too engage in wargaming & they seem to have reached a similar conclusion & hence all these recent feelers:

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/pakistan-army-seeks-better-ties-with-india-report-5165512/

The adversary now has received unmistakable signals about India’s resolve to recover its occupied sovereign territory by any/all available means & hence such conciliatory signals are now emanating. But it is too late for any positive hopes for Pakistan. The countdown for recovery of PoK had long begun & it is now gaining increasing momentum.

To RON: Of what use will the F-16s be to Iran since the US in any case won’t provide product-support? Of course the PAF’s AEW & CS platforms can flee to either Iran or Afghanistan & that will be a welcome development since they will be rendered operationally useless for the duration of hostilities.

To INTOLERANT PERSON: 1) Usage of TNWs by Pakistan inside Indian territory will invite swift & savage retribution in mkind. 2) What is so unclear? It is known to everyone that the LeJ from southern Punjab in Pakistan is highly active inside Balochiostan & it receives funds from Saudi Arabia. And their targets are the Hazara Shia community in Quetta. So naturally Iran as the self-professed praetorian guard for all Shias worldwide will keep a close watch on what’s happening inside southern Pakistan. 3) Malaysian Army has been using M-4s since the previous decade itself. Haven’t you seen the Tavor’s carbine/SMG version being used by the IA & CRPF?

To SJ: I haven’t even arrived at that point of my assessment in this thread. It will follow soon in this very thread.

To KAPIL: Why the hell should India militarily intervene in Maldives when India has everything to lose by doing so & everything to gain by not doing so? And BTW there is also a semi-permanent Indian training detachment in Maldives that trains the Maldivian Coast Guard.

To PIERRE ZORIN: They are CRPF personnel 7 members of the J & K Police’s Special Operations Group.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Bangladesh Proposes India's OIC Entry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkekMNx2pQY

Indian NSG team in Annual Warrior competition in Jordan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=codTtUMviWQ&t=174s

UAE & Saudi Military Enter Yemen's Socotra Island:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucPGxocwY1E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BPpO38Cwss

Combined PA-PAF Exercise in Jhelum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4_tG_dDx4c

sbm said...

Once again thanks. In 2016, OFB mentioned the same to me with a need for robotics and they had started some steps in that regard.
They also told me two things - they and the DPSUs have begun increasing munitions and spares production and can perhaps by 2019-2020 reach the 40(I) India wide WWR levels for up to 75% of all munitions, fuses and spares - that is consistent with 20(I) for 2018 for 70%. This of course is based on a combo of imports and surged local production.

Also, I was advised that the IAF has been also focusing on keeping a 40(I) stock of WWR munitions, spares and POL for all systems. However it notes a peculiar problem with gun ammunition for its MiGs. Re-lifing of missiles, new purchases and improved SOPs for storage are keeping the levels decent. Was I being lied to or are they operating this way? Gaganshakti seems to suggest they are going in this direction.

Finally, I am hearing a strong report that 7 new IAF Akash sqns with the new seeker will finally be ordered and that the order for MRSAMs currently stands at 9sqns with a view to perhaps double or triple that number in the next decade?

Any clarity you can provide I'd appreciate. I'm not getting this info from journalists or think-tank idiots but by normally very serious people.

However, above all, your Ganganshakti post is beyond excellent. I have never read such an excellent analysis and comparison in my life.

Can the IAF do a full scale massive retaliation vs two foes? I'd suggest yes and effectively.

However, I also suggest that such an approach will not achieve either the desired political or military results in a short time frame.

Would that be a fair assessment?

Thanks for everything.

Unknown said...

Hi Prasun Sir,


It is always a pleasure to read your blog and this is kind of a newspaper for me on National Security. Your Analysis is always very sound and based on reasoning and common sense and therefore accurate. I hope to see you someday express my gratitude on how you have helped me in being focussed on the facts and not what people say.

Based on what I read on this blog and what is presented in the media, my guess is that India will try and reclaim PoK starting its efforts by Aug 2018 and ending before Mar 2019 - which will co-inside with start of canvassing for the 2019 LS elections.
Few points which I will like to add to my logic:-
1. The current BJP Government has always taken steps which were bold (sometimes it may have backfired, but I will still call them as doers when compared to other Governments of the past).
2. The current Government still needs one final act to convince that part of Indians who were unhappy with their performance or Citizens who are waiting for a reason to vote for a political party.
3. The reclaiming of PoK will give them a huge boost in terms of vote bank and may even be the final nail in the coffin for a lot of political careers.
4. This would also send a very strong message internationally, something like "MODI has delivered/arrived" - I do not use the word India, as India did arrive in 1947 and a Country is only good as its Administrators.
4. I personally believe that in Indian politics, it is always choosing of the lesser evil (as all the current Political Parties have leaders who suffer from Chronic foot in mouth disease).
5. This will also mean that the Indian stock markets will crash once when the AirLand Campaign starts and this will help to fund the 2019 LS elections (by shorting the Sensex)

Thank you so much,
Piyush

Anik said...

H&K G3 rifle recovered from Naxals. Interestingly G3 is also the standard issue rifle of Pakistan Army.
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2018/may/06/first-ever-recovery-of-german-g-3-rifle-from-chhattisgarh-naxals-police-1811049.html

Anonymous said...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/05/pakistan-hazara-shia-muslims-protest-quetta-killings-180502131145156.html

What options does Iran has? It’s not like Saudi Arabia which has tonnes of money to spend or influence people

Ron

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RON: If Iran can financially prop-up the Syrian Ba’ath Party regime, then it surely can do some serious bad work inside Pakistan as well. One must not forget that Shia-majority Iraq’s assistance too can be solicited.

To ANIK: You are perhaps forgetting that at one time Myanmar too used to use small arms developed by H & K. And such weapons have been smuggled into India since the late 1990s. Here’s the evidence:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2015/06/badlands-of-eastern-nagaland-inside.html

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DYLVTndpBW4/VXd9CT21uDI/AAAAAAAAJec/6gqEOQAo95w/s1600/ULFA%2BCamp.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-G9aGfT23vXY/VXd-d7GYYLI/AAAAAAAAJew/ZG6jZfYceKQ/s1600/North-East-2.jpg

To SBM: VMT. The deficiencies were & are still there primarily in the arenas of fuzes, because electro-mechanical ones are being replaced by more reliable & robust electronic ones. There are about seven major fuze manufacturers in India, all in the private-sector, but they have consistently been hampered from expanding their product portfolios due to unjust & uncompetitive rules/regulations imposed by the MoD’s Dept of Defence Production & Supplies just for the sake of providing lifelines to the DPSUs. Hence, ECIL continues to import fuzes from Reutech of South Africa, while BEL has just teamed up with Israel’s RESHEF to engage in a similar monkey-business practice. Ammo for GSH-23 cannon is problematic because both Russia & Eastern Europe post-1992 has standardized on 30mm ammo & hence critical components for 23mm ammo are extremely hard to come by. This will affect the LCA Mk.1 as well & hence serious thought ought to be given to replacing the 23mm cannon with the 30mm now being used by MiG-29UPGs & Su-30MKIs. This also applies to the LCA-AF Mk.2 project. No of SAM Sqns for the IAF will be tripled for sure, given the increase in the no of Vas & VPs requiring protection. But the final no of Sqns to receive the Akash-1 & Barak-8 MR-SAM have not been finalised as yet. In addition, the IA will receive more Akash-1s for protecting its own static ammo storage depots & POL faciolities located in the forward areas.

As for a future AirLand campaign in the subcontinent, is full-scale retaliation reqd? Will the enemy resort to it? Will it affordable for the enemy to engage in all-out war? What has been the past track-record in this matter? If the war objectives are limited, then will all-out retaliation be reqd? And most importantly, how will international opinion be shaped & sculpted in order to act as the enabler reqd for India undertaking a limited war (AirLand-type) with limited but clearly defined objectives? These are the questions that require analysis/answers & which I will attempt to provide in this thread in successive uploads to the above narrative.

To UNKNOWN/PIYUSH: VMT indeed.

Rajesh Mishra said...

@Piyush: I think you are correct to almost all the points.

sbm said...

Once again thanks! For a clarification - as far as I know that to date 8 Akash sqns and 9 MRSAM sqns plus 3 Spyder sqns have been ordered for the IAF of which 8 Akash and 2 Spyder have been delivered with possibly 1 MRSAM sqn. What does that mean for the Pechoras? Has a contract for the upgrading of 16 sqns been signed? I know that BDL has been re-lifining them with some success.

Intolerant Person said...

Sirji,how in the world can NSCN can get their hands on Tavor?

Prranshu Yadav said...

Thanks for the informative article. I just noticed that in desert storm, RAF fielded 60 tornado GR1s which performed 1500 sorties. That's 25 sorties per aircraft. But the 12 jagurs fielded by RAF generated 617 sorties, which is 51 sorties per aircraft. Can you please give possible reasons for this massive difference?

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
AWESOME

ashish gautam said...

Hi sir,
Vmt for providing more details.
If I ever printed my own news paper or magazine, I will be requesting you to work as defence editor on it. πŸ˜‰.
My question is that in India any DRDO lab is working to develop dual pulse seeker (MMW+TV/IR guidance) for next generation of missiles???
2) what are characterstics of new seeker of Akash SAM? ANLny improvement in range??

Anonymous said...

It seems bangladesh is buying J10s from this post.
What are the implications for India?
"Okieh guys highly likely that one of our fighter jet pilots will face court martial following info leak with pictures by him... regarding the training going on in China and j-10 procurement. Funny thing is he was super embarrassing with all his lies with me, saying he was there for k8 and f7 training which actually are done in bd...
He’s a flying officer rank"

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bangladesh-air-force.168817/page-313#post-10476098

Regards,
Anna

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: The Pechora re-lifing work is over & now relifing of OSA-AK is in progress. S-125 Pechoras are being steadily replaced by Akash-1 deliveries. About 2,000 SAM rounds have been delivered to date to both the IAF & IA.

Army Air Defence College: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2UNbYAufqM

To INTOLERANT PERSON: Is that a rumour or a fact? But what is a fact is this, which has been going on for 10 years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31sWm3ioETY

To PRRANSHU YADAV: That’s because the reqmt for battlefield air-interdiction air-interdiction in support of ground forces is far more than deep-strike in support of strategic air campaigns. It will be explained later tonight in the analysis of the 1971 India-Pakistan air war in the western front.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Yes, such work has been underway for the past 17 years on combinations like RF sMMW seeker coupled to IIR seeker or IIR seeker coupled to laser seeker or MMW seeker coupled to TV seeker. Akash-1’s upgraded seeker is a more ruggedized version of the existing seeker. No range improvements are reqd because the Barak-8 MR-SAM too will be acquired by both the IAF & IN.

To ANNA: LoLz! The usual delusional gibberish emanating from Pakistani websites who had earlier claimed that Sri Lanka had bought JF-17s!!! Bangladesh Air Force in June 2017 had already inked a contract for procuring 8 Su-30SMEs, with an option for four more. That’s also the reason why the BAF has procured Yak-130 LIFTs. Had the J-10s been procured, then the BAF would have opted for the L-15 LIFT from China as well. Myanmar too has procured Yak-130s & not L-15s & Yangon too is now negotiating for Su-30SMs.

sbm said...

I confess to being a little confused: there are supposed to be 30 Pechora sqn. 8 Akash sqn have been delivered. Have the other 7 sqn requested been ordered? Is the upgrade of the 16 sqn of Pechoras proposed a couple years ago still being undertaken?

Also, with respect to stocks of air-to-air and air-to-ground and SAMs of course, is the IAF prepared for a 40(I) conflict or a 20(I) or what? The AAM stocks seem high as do the SAM stocks with many thousands of each.

Appreciate any clarity.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Yes, the follow-on orders for Akash-1 have been placed. And for added clarification, 2000 Akash-1 SAM rounds EACH have reached the IAF & IA, meaning the Kub/Kvadrat SAMs too have been withdrawn. S-125 Pechora upgrade is composed of two parts: upgrade of the target acquisition/tracking/engagement (i.e. fire-control system) component; & the SAM round component. Both have been completed & now the same is in progress for the OSA-AKs of the IA & IAF.

Even contemplating 40-day or even 20-day conflict is utterly useless, irrelevant, uncalled for & plain impossible in today's environment due to the nuclear overhang, especially in the subcontinent, be it against China or Pakistan. The template today is for no more than 14 days of high-intensity multi-front war since by D+10 itself i8nternational intervention will take place. Hence, 14 days is the max limit for multi-front conflicts (which is exactly what was rehearsed during EX Gagan Shakti as well as numerous other exercises of the IA between 2004 and the present-day), while for single-theatre conflicts like the one in mid-1999, the limited war of attrition can go on for even 90 days. In 1971 the war had begun on November 21 with fire-assaults & was concluded by December 16. But under nuclear overhang, 14(I) is the maximum & no more, as per the previous war directive issued by the MoD in 2009. By next month the new war directive will be issued. My assessments that make up the narrative of this thread is meant to be the prelude to that awaited war directive.

To JUST CURIOUS: Both belong to different generations. Ther Ku-band seeker is of the late 1990s technological era.

Anonymous said...

Your view on US cancelation IRAN nuclear deal and it's effects on India.
Regards
Koushik

ashish gautam said...

Quite detailed information regarding 71 air warfare. Sometimes I feel that either u r present or ex r&aw agent or something of same stuff 😜 coz ur analysis on various topics it quite detailed, point to point & adequately reasoned.
1) Is there any kind of radio electronic weapon either under research or production which exists either in india or abroad which if dropped in large numbers on a populated area like punjab, sindh etc of Pakistan & then emitting multiple shots of kinda radio waves or EMPs which can kill humans causing cardiac arrest immediately without causing any considerable damage to environment???
2) will there be any change in govt stance on stone pelters in Kashmir? Like giving orders of shoot at sight to armed forces in such condition???
3) govt will be renaming them as terrorists rather then stone pelters & imposing same counter attack conditions on them as we do with terrorists in j&k???

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Today there is missile attack on KSA by Houthi rebels.
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1299311/saudi-arabia

Patriot Missile Defense System
http://www.atimes.com/article/patriot-system-good-enough-missile-defense/

In 1991 Gulf war, there is big hype about Patriot Vs Scud missile. World Media claims that Patriot intercept Successfully Scud Missiles. After some years there is a news that not even single scud missile is intercepted by Patriot. Recently you answered that None of the American missiles was intercepted by Russian SAM in Syria. Now the same stories goes in Houthis - Saudi missile attack.

I have some questions to ask you.

1. Is missile defense system a success Story or media Hype?
2. Is there any proof to show at least one missile is intercepted by another missile in the air during real war?
3. You know that S-400 is more costly. What grantee Russians are giving about their S-400 System?
4. Do you believe Patriot Missile defense or S-400 will safe guard Indian Cities or it is waste of money to purchase?

Thanks
S. Senthil Kumar

Intolerant Person said...

1.In a conference (or lecture),CAS said that J-31 wasn't stealthy enough to get concerned of.One reason he said that it does have canard.My question is,how wing canards reduces stealth.
And yeah,all you said about current events is exactly what he said.Especially about Rafale deal.Now atleast INC should come out of delusion.
Few question from very unusual topic:
2.What kind of launch system is developed for AAD and QR-SAM,hot or cold launch?
3.In both the systems,which ones best in your POV?
4.Shouldn't we canisterize Akash,just like what Chinese did to Buk system to have HQ-9/16?

Srinivasa Nanduri Ramanujam said...

Hi Prasun,

President Trump has withdrawan from Iran deal and Russia is deeply sanctioned. How is India going to act now to hedge it's bets against BRI and what is the fate of INSTC.

How will this effect chabahar & trade with and via Iran? the defence deals that we have with Russia also seems to be in jeopardy? S400, more sukhois, etc.,

And wouldn't this make china trumpet with even greater vigor for Eurasian union / sco + / brics + / BRI louder. Isolating and hurting Indian needs and giving a window of opportunity for China to run amok. Seems Modi is at a loss here. I hope I am wrong. All this, while no individual / military personnel of Pakistan are sanctioned yet.

As it is trade war seems fizzled and stalemated successfully by china. May be I am wrong but president Trump's decision seems to be in haste.

Regards,

srinivasa nanduri

just_curious said...

Prasun,

-what is the status of kaveri-snecma engine & its spinoffs for marine usage. today we are buying gas turbine engines from Ukraine. by when can we have it ready. Also can it be used on tanks?? Any engines specifics you can share
- in the recently conculded def expo, there were multiple msme's who displayed body armour, Which ones are being ordered by the army & which others have potential to be commercially successful
- What can India co-operate on with Ukraine in defence
- Why are the Turks supporting India in the OIC . they are die hard hard paki stooges..
-

TheHundred said...

Prasun, does this mean Mi-17 MRO facilities have finally been or are being set up. Thanks!

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/mi-17-upgrade-to-begin-soon/475161.html

“The contracts have been signed and we expect to begin work by March,” Air Commodore Sanjeev Sinha, Air Officer Commanding No. 3 Base Repair Depot (BRD), said here today.
“The upgrade includes replacing conventional cockpit gauges with flat screen multi-function displays, installation of weather radar, new avionics and communication equipment as well as navigation suites that are compatible with present-day ground-based direction finding aids and instrument landing systems,” he added.

“A new line for overhauling the Mi-17 V5 indigenously is also being set up at 3 BRD. This will be ready in 2019 by which time the first V5 variants would be due for their first major overhaul,” Air Cmde Sinha said. An IAF team will also visit Russia later this year for training in this technology, he said.

Ludwig said...

Sir, 1) What is the status of Brahmos NG? Any progress on that front.
2) how does Brahmos NG fits in with Navy's Medium range Anti-ship missile RFI?
3) What is the status of NMRH and NUH, will we ever see any progress there?
4) And don't you think IN needs a new CIWS system, either a missile gun combination like Kashtan or a Laser CIWS, is there some thinking in this direction?

Pierre Zorin said...

I don't know whether Pakistan will succumb to separatists but India on the otehr hand is absolutely cornered by violence on the East and the West. I am not sure what ISI and China offer these people but it seems India is more of a threat of disintegration than Pakistan! North East has flared up again no doubt under ISI-China collaboration and Kashmir is an endless history. I am not sure why more non Kashmiris are not settled in Kashmir and chase the Paki supporters out - pretty much like in Israel.

buddha said...

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/israel-strikes-dozens-iranian-targets-syria-044915343.html

http://idrw.org/cia-concerned-about-potential-contacts-between-extremists-and-pak-nuclear-scientists-haspel/

http://idrw.org/as-usa-pulls-out-of-nuclear-deal-hyderabad-iranians-speak-out-their-minds/

http://zeenews.india.com/india/army-could-have-killed-me-but-saved-my-life-confessions-of-a-terrorist-2106619.html/amp

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1IB0A2
Some interesting news .....

Zircon said...

Hi Prasun,

PA and Pakistan airforce have set up a multi layered IADS with different types of radars and sam systems. Their radar network and earlywarning capabilities are quite potent . How did they manage to set up such a comprehensive system with that small defense budget they are having ?

How can our airforce disable and destroy their radars and elements of their iads so that the strile acs can operate unhinderedin Pakistan's airspace.

I am doing a bit of digging on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and how they acquired their nuclear capability. Which books do you suggest I go through for acquiring knowledge about the same.


Can you upload some slides from Defexpo 2018 which depicts the private sector'scontribution to the LCA .

soi said...

Hello Prasun da,
Nice article Indeed.

I had a few other queries:

1.[http://idrw.org/indian-army-buys-force-gurkha-4x4-based-light-strike-vehicles/] The LSV deal has been won by Force Gurkha, Who were the other contenders?
2. Is this new LSV capable carrying any type of mounted weapons?
3. [https://www.tatamotors.com/product/defence-light-support-vehicle-lsuv/] Is this (Light Support Vehicle) same a Light Strike Vehicle?

If any more info are available with you, do share.

Regards,
Soikot Banerjee

BENO said...

1.Do you reckon that armed forces will start working towards on creating a leaner force as recommended by the defence panel recently?
2.Why India is showing reluctance to order follow on actas sonar?
3.When do you think a definitive LCA mk1a will emerge?
4.Do you think India will go for g to g deal for the procurement of s-70b or will it be a tendered one?
5.Is it possible for the newly formed defence planning committee to streamline defence purchases or will it be another bureaucratic hurdle?

TheHundred said...

Prasun, Will the DPC undertake the long awaited national strategic review that you have talked about for last few years?

http://bharatshakti.in/dpc-decides-to-evolve-time-bound-action-plan/

"In its first meeting held on Thursday under the chairmanship of National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval and attended by the service chiefs, the Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary and the Expenditure Secretary, the DPC decided to make a quick assessment of threats to national security in different time frames and accordingly draw up a plan to combat such threats by ensuring greater coordination between the various arms of the government dealing with the myriad subjects."
he DPC also discussed the need to be prepared for futuristic wars. Use of space and cyber for military purposes and improving inter-agency coordination, greater use of technology and right-sizing the armed forces were some of the issues that came up for discussion.

"The DPC, mandated to conceptualise and execute plans in the following broad areas—national security strategy, strategic defence review and doctrines; international defence engagement strategy; roadmap to build defence manufacturing eco-system; strategy to boost defence exports; and prioritise capability development plans for the armed forces over different time-frames in consonance with the overall priorities, strategies and resource flows—is likely to meet every 30-40 days to review and authorise implementation of plans after consulting the Raksha Mantri followed by clearances from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)."

ashish gautam said...

As per the latest slides & detailed analysis uploaded by you few things are cleared.
1) almost all PAF & PN air defence preparation is now in public domain... Means apne unko nanga kr dia hai... 😜😜
2) all these systems collectively draw up a complex picture of a good enough air defence system put in place by rogue nation.
3) but like others it too have a weakness i.e, dependence upon Radar, prone to EW systems & yes am not sure about accuracy & killing probability of these SAM systems. Though I consider them above 90%.
4) in case of a high intensity war with India undoubtedly PAF & PN r Gonna use them with their full offensive capability & make them work in dense EW environment too anyhow but its success depends upon how IAF let it work.
5) if from day 1 IAF destroys there Radars, using ARM, & then bob them using guided precision strike munition then all these systems will be proved to be sitting ducks, all depends upon IAF's ability of attacking First, attacking accurate & attacking hardly as a silly mistake done in locating enemy radar stations & weapon station will be paid with good enough destruction of our own assets.
6) we need to destroy there AWACS based systems using Novator k100 kinda missiles from very first day, destroy as many as u can, shoot down any of there airborne aircraft using BVRAAM, S400 SAM etc & yes use army's MBRL to hit there bases Within range of MBRL.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KOUSHIK & SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAM: It always pays to read the finer details. The US HAS NOT cancelled the JCPOA. It has only withdrawn from it, excused itself out of it. It has also said that the US remains open to renegotiating a more comprehensive & everlasting deal, meaning that the US still wants a deal & has left the door half-open. And by allowing for the moment the Europeans to mull over this, the US & the Europeans are playing the Good Cop-Bad Cop game in order to force Iran to negotiate a similar deal the limits Iran’s options for using its ballistic missiles in a threatening manner. The US knows only too well that it will be suicidal for it to go on a collision course with Europe since NATO is now quite united in riging up to the challenges coming from the east from Russia. India’s involvement in Chabahar won’t be affectred at all since that project aims at economic support & political stabilisation of Afghanistan & the Central Asian Republics, & has minimal impact on Iran’s economy.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: LoLz! All that I’m doing is gathering all the various pixels & positioning them in such a manner so as to obtain a coherent big picture. And all these pixels are already in the open domain, but are nevertheless scattered. 1) If such weapons were legally permitted under international law, then don’t you reckon they would already hjave been deployed worldwide by other major military forces as well? 2) Stone-pelting incidents can easily be greatly minimiksed if investments are made in developing non-lethal weapons like acoustic systems that temporarily paralyse the nervous systems of the stone-pelters. Such devices are already available from the West & some of them have been installed on IN warships involved in anti-piracy patrols along the Horn of Africa. 3) Before one attacks, one has to first figure out what to strike & where. The hopw comes much much later. But where are such ‘eyes & ears’ of the IAF & IA? Where are the ISTR force multipliers lkike the E-8 JSTARS or Orchidee/Horizon platforms? And how can S-400s be used against AEW & CS platforms when the S-400’s target engagement radars are unable to see more than 380km away at a target flying at 10,000 feet altitude, thanks to the Earth’s curvature? Can any S-400 SAM fly a depressed flight-trajectory out to a distance of 380km, or is this range meant only for a diagonal, slant range? Have you considered that? Because there’s no dearth of clowns/jokers within the ‘desi’ journalistic community who have ASSUMED that a 380km-range of the S-400 means it can shoot down anything that’s airborne 400km away.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: 1) That depends on the type opf missile being intercepted. If ballistic missiles require interception, then they should be hit as high as possible & by warheads that break up the missile’s stages into small parts, so that the descending debris causese minimal damage on the ground. Of MBRL-launched rockets require interception, then smaller interceptors like the ones used by the Iron Dome system will suffice. 3) The post-1991 PAC-2 & PAC-3 versions of MIM-104 Patriot SAM have been extremely effective against the Houti-launched liquid-fuelled ballistic missiles. 3) The Russians have still not completed development of the kind of ANM-type SAM that is reqd for shooting down IRBMs or MRBMs. 4) Indian cities can be guarded not by Patriot-type SAMs, but THAAD-type SAMs. S-400’s ABM variant is still under development.

To INTOLERANT PERSON: 1) Not J-31, but the J-20. As to what reduces stealth, do read this:

https://www.businessinsider.in/Close-up-photos-of-Russias-new-stealth-jet-reveal-its-true-purpose-and-its-a-big-threat-to-the-US/articleshow/64102080.cms

2) They are all hot-launching systems. 3) Both are good but the end-product needs to mature through a series of test-firings. Thje more tests the better. 4) The Barak-8s will be cannister-encased. Akash-1 rounds are cannisterised when they are in storage.

To JUST CURIOUS: 1) it is still under discussion. No marine gas-turbine version has been discussed as yet. 2) On the BPJs supplied by MKU & the one shown in my DEFEXPO 2018 thread are being supplied to the CAPFs & armed forces. 3) All VK-2500 engines powering all the IAF’s Mi-17V-5s were supplied by Ukraine’s Motor Sich JSC. It was only recently that Russia began building such engines. Also, the OEM for building R-27R/T & R-73E AAMs is ARTEM, a Ukrainian company. 4) Not just Turkey, even Saudi Arabia & Bangladesh has proposed that India be granted observer-status in the OIC.

To THEHUNDRED: MRO facilities have always existed at 3 BRD in Chandigarh for Mi-8Ts & Mi-17s. It can conduct complete refurbishment of both airframes & engines & gearboxes. Only the engine core is sent back to Ukraine for servicing. That’s why a new shopfloor will be created for the Mi-17V-5, which uses engines & gearboxes that are different from those on the Mi-8T & Mi-17. The military-specific strategic review has already been conducted. From that a National Security Strategy involving various ministries now needs to be fomnulated.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LUDWIG: 1) Why does this question crop up every month? Thje first flight of this missile wioll take place only in 2022. 2) BrahMos-NG is a long-range missile. 3) There’s no money for buying them this year. 4) Kashtan-M has been a complete failure when used by the IN. The Barak-1s & the Barak-8 SAMs are completely capable of intercepting subsonic/supersonic ASCMs.

To PIERRE ZORIN: I really fail to understand how come you’ve reached such dire conclusions when the ground-realities tell a completely different story. In any case, your’s truly is the guard who has been entrusted with the onerous task of guarding the guardians (meaning I have already filed an affidavit stating that since I did not descend from the heavens & since I am not residing in the heavens, I therefore have no desire to spend my afterlife in the heavens either & am therefore more than happy to take on such onerous/dangerous/life-threatening taskings that take no toll on my conscience), so you need not have any apprehensions.

To ZIRCON: That’s because of 2 factors: 1) the country’s elongated geography with no appreciable hinterland, which requires lesser quantities of such systems, & 2) its obsession with protecting only its veastern flank. How can the PAF’s IADS be destroyed? In more or less the same way the Israelis are now destroting the Syrian IADS. Tjere isn’t any book detailing factoids on how Pakistan acquired nuclear WMD capabilities, simply because all the books that have dealt with this subject matter have all printed lies & deceit in order to create the impression of Pakistan’s nuclear WMD-related activities being totally indigenous. Slides on private-sectopr participation in the LCA programme were uploaded in the thread dealing with the LCA-AF Mk.2 last year.

To SOI: 1) Here’s the press-statement:

http://www.forcemotors.com/themes/frontend/docs/media-page/press-release/2018/pdf%20file-Force%20Light%20Strike%20Vehicle%20press%20release.pdf

It also supplies the APU engines for the Dhanush-35 & the ATAGS. Other contenders were Mahindra defence, OFB & TATA Motors. 2) Only MMGs & AGLs. 3) Yes.

To BENO: 1) It is not up to the armed forces to do that. The responsibility is that of the Union MoF. In 2012 itself the IA HQ had done an internal assessment called REBALANCE & RESTRUCTURING, which studies all aspects of reducing manpower & using that saved money to invest in weapons procurements. But then, there’s this BIZARRE & PECULIAR regul;ation in the Rules of Business of the GopI, which mandates that any money saved from the military’s revenue account cannot be transferred to the capital account & the save money must therefore be surrendered to the Consolidated Fund of India!!! And all Union Finance Ministers since independence have not even bothered to scrap such regulations. 2) Where’s the money? 3) Only by next year, by June 2019 at best. 4) It will be a tendered one. 5) It is not about streramlining, but about prioritizing what’s reqd the most to ensure immediate war preparedness.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

What is the UAE Up To in Red Sea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxqgmpE8e-g

Is anyone in India even aware of what's going on there & what India can do in her own interests? Or is the UAE making such investments in order to later lease such real-estate to the US that in turn will serve as permenent floating aircraft carriers?

Sri Lankaan Abduction Island: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NahhMUGnkjE

rad said...

hi prasun
how did elta win the contract for lca? we were given to understand the performance of the rbe-2 was better? did they give us some secret goodies??

regarding the jaguar upg- how many have been up graded and why has the engine replacement taken place?

can we put a derby -er on the jag due to the elta aesa radar?

can you post some pics o f the upgraded jaguar?

why only 40 jaguars in the upgrade??

can i say that with the upgrade tech of the jaguar india is nearly self sufficient in avionics apart from the radar?? ie Doppler height radar,mission comp,autopilot,radios,datalinks,nav equipment , gps -inertial sysytems, digital maps,etc

this capability would help in the avionics of the AMCA and future upgrades of fighter ac?.

rad said...

hi prasun

The lack of ew capacity on the LCA can be largely taken care of by the AESA radar due to it inherent jamming capability and large power aperture as well, compared to a
normal ew suite . All its needs is software mods.
can it take care of t he lack of ew.? at least in the forward hemisphere?

can i assume that with the elta aesa, the pak f-16 will be largely ineffective due to its non mono pulse radar that can be jammed with ease thus denying the f-16 radar fire solution to its amraam missile and then fire its own derby -er at it .

does the elta radar come with inherent data links capability as all aesa radar seem to exchange data in a net centric way.
info for a silent attack .

Pierre Zorin said...

why do I say what I said? Hundreds of videos glorifying Sameer Tiger and others attracting more and more young people into that blood shed. Bomb blasts in the NE, attacks on law enforcement personnel, Maoists in Chhatisgarh, unrest in South India...
The biggest question is- why call Sameer Tiger a terrorist and then hand over his body so miscreants can use that as a publicity stunt? Should not the GOI dispose of those killed vermins and prevent their glorification? Saffron fundamentalists attacking Christians right in front of law enforcement officials....which patriotic, united country faces these enemies from within?

bhoutik said...

about socotra, why would the US need it with oman and djibouti, and what do you suggest for India to do?

BENO said...

1.Are there any turbofan powered uav being developed by India because there have been many news reports regrading the manik turbofan?
2.Will India purchase il-214 mta off the shelf or any other options are being looked at?
3.When do you think the HAL luh will enter service?
4.Do you think india will go for shortfin barrucuda or scorpenes with some improvements for the p75i?
5.Has anything moved with regard to india's plans to have a space,cyber command under each force as well as having a chief of defence staff or is it just all talk?
6.is it possible for a kamorta class corvette to accommodate l&t developed quad launchers?
7.What is your opinion regarding army's proposal to have assam rifles merged with it?

ashish gautam said...

Yeah I didn't considered curvature of earth about S400 Sam.
There is some info regarding restart of testing of high quality nukes by USA.
1) Do u expect that if it happened India will also restart testing its nukes??

ashish gautam said...

http://idrw.org/why-naval-amca-will-actually-be-a-different-warplane-then-air-force-variant/
1) since these are author's own point of view but I have only 1 question, ye kabi Banega bhi?? By 2040 will it it take its first flight???? 😜😜😜😜

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

really dont understand what you said at 6 am about UAE. if you remember late last year i had voiced my opinion about India recognizing Somaliland and helping develop its military and economy, when i shared a news that UAE was building the Berbera port. If you remember you said India should only be concerned about united Somalia an what UAE was doing should not bother us,

buts looks like you had a change of heart and mind regarding somaliland :-) :-)

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Where’s the need for a change of heart? Even the UAE does not recognize Somaliland or Puntland & yet it has succeeded in obtaining real-estate there. So kindly watch that related videolink & you will understand what I am stating, i.e. what’s happenbing there in terms of power-play, how the UAE has succeeded there, what are the lessons for India to learn from all this in terms of strategic visioning, & finally when will the GoI wake up & sanction the establishment of an operational Southern Fleet of the IN, & that’s because the IN’s Southern Command is now only a training command with ZERO operational assets, like a functional fleet.

To BHOUTIK: Oman & Djibouti are only logistics bases, not full-fledged bases where munition stockpiles can be maintained, as is the case with the US bases in the UAE, Qatar & Diego Garcia.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: If that is what really the folks at ADA are stating, then it’s obvious they haven’t learnt anything from either the world’s aviation history, or the Tejas project. What such idiots ought to know is that if an land-based & an aircraft carrier-based variant from a common design is to be developed, then the first variant to be developed should be the carrier-based one, simply because this variant’s design always begins from its landing gears. The entire airframe is designed around the landing gears. That’s how it has been since the days of WW-2. So if anyone is of the view that a land-based AMCA variant can later be modified into a carrier-based variant, then that person is in violation of all known laws of physics & aerospace engineering!

To BENO: 1) Yes, the Ghatak UAS by HAL & DRDO. 2) Is Russia procuring any IL-214s? Will Russia equip the PS-90A turbofans with FADEC, as asked by India for powering the IL-214 MRTA? 3) It was due to enter service THIS YEAR! 4) Additional Scorpenes fitted with the DRDO-develop AIP module is the only practical & affordable soplution. 5) There will be no cyber command, since this will entail creation of more three-star & two-star billets in each service. Hence, the idea is to have CYBER CELLS for each armed service. CDF & integrated theatre commands are still a far way off. 6) Yes, but what for? Such vessels can easily house VLS cells. 7) In India the Assam Rifles right now is the only paramilitary unit, while the ITBP, SSBm CRPF, CISF, & BSF are all CAPFs. Hence, the Assam Rifles being a warfighting unit needs to become an integral part of the IA, just like the RR is.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: Well, in that case you seemed to have missed this in the social media:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/shun-violence-return-home-arrested-militant-s-plea-to-others-in-viral-video/story-crAgoMJiHscVRPGiJ7OWsL.html

Even in Israel, ultra-orthodox Jewish sects & cults are routinely at violent odds with the law-0enforcement authorities of that country. Such incidents are not peculiar to India. The difference is, in India one is free to take recourse to the legal approach & seek justice.

To RAD: LoLz! EW protection reqd is hemispherical in terms of volume & space. So how can a nose-mounted AESA-MMR jam a hostile radar that’s painting the aircraft from behind? A Tejas Mk.1A with AESA-MMR won’t even need to scan the skies for hostile aircraft because the ground-based IAF radars through their control & reporting centres will constantly update the Tejas Mk.1A pilot about the enemy’s course, speed & altitude. What any modern-day MRCA needs is the IRST sensor that can enable the aircraft to operate in fully passive, non-emitting mode till the last minute in order to spring the surprise on the enemy. No radar comes with inherent dat-links. Data-links are standalone RF radios with modems for relaying voice/imagery/data to other recipients. Today, the most advanced SDRs are the one that combine UHF/FM bands with IFF transponders, all in 1 single avionics box & that’s what has been selected for Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A & RAFAEL is the supplier. Has the IAFor HAL confirmed the selection of the EL/M-2052 for the Tejas Mk.1A? 64 Jaguars are being upgraded to DARIN-3 configuration. The RLG-INS is imported & is SAGEM’s Sigma-95 (same as that on Tejas). AMCA will require panoramic AMLCDs just like on the Cockpit-NGs of the Gripen-NG & South Korean T-40 & the cockpit of the F-35 JSF & China’s J-20.

TheHundred said...

Any truth to this story below, Prasun?

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/foreign-rifles-trump-make-in-india-army-shutting-down-high-tech-project-118050401359_1.html

"Last October, the vice-chief of army staff ordered the BMS project shut down to save money for “more urgently needed equipment”. That was endorsed in November by the Defence Production Board, chaired by Defence Secretary Sanjay Mitra. In December, the Integrated Project Management Team that oversees the BMS project ruled that it was not required “in its current form”."

"Two DAs were chosen for Project BMS. In one, Tata Power (Strategic Engineering Division) is in partnership with L&T. The other DA is a consortium between Bharat Electronics and Rolta India. Each DA quoted about Rs 25 billion to design the BMS and build four prototypes for evaluation. That is significantly higher than the Rs 3.5 billion per DA that the army arbitrarily sanctioned in 2007. Now the MoD is bargaining with DAs to slash costs."

"The army says equipping the army’s 800-plus combat units with BMS would cost Rs 500-600 billion, judging by the cost of prototype development. But industry sources argue that prototype development costs are far more than industrial production, where scale drives down prices."

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Judging by the terminal velocity of the target imagery's magnification & the wobbly nature of the transmitted imagery, it looks like the IDF-AF used a combination of ground-launched & air-launched loitering UAS (like the Harop & Delilah) against 50+ ground targets that were only 150km away:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbhaPffMIjE&t=1s

To KAUSTAV & JOYDEEP GHOSH: Looks like this imbecile is hell-bent upon proving himself to be a maha-Ramchhagol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zzm7uT_xuU0

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

Delicious, that Ramchagol comment. I assume it to mean the Tripura Chief Minister. LOL Fits that strutting big guy to a T.

Sticking to the East and North East, in view of your previous comments, can we see an upswing in economic development and industrial growth in WB and NE, Tripura in particular, if BIMSTEC and ASEAN common markets are opened up combined with economic links to China Yunnan . The arrest of 24 Bangladeshis allegedly terrorists with fake Aadhaar IDs are not auspicious.

Thanks & Regards

ashish gautam said...

I request you to confirm that information provided in idrw link. If its actually from ADA officials then surely this project gonna b a disaster too.
What happened to army's requirement of 1500 MBTs? Any movement on it?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: Absolutely. Greater connectivity options through land, sea & air-links will always boost economic development. WB & tripura are already benefitting from the opening up of Bangladesh as a market. Once the railway & roadway at Moreh is opened, it will ensure connectivity not only with Myanmar, but also to the greater ASEAN region.

to THE HUNDRED: Kindly read my reply to L:USWIG on May 7, 2018 at 4:07AM.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Those all are on-going deliberations & they do not represent any final decisions, which have yet to be taken.

Intolerant Person said...

1.Do you think this is operation search light 2?.....
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dawn.com/news/amp/1406903
2.Why don't we expel diplomats and shut down consulates in India(if not Embassy) of Pakistan just like what many western countries did with Ruskies after that Skripal case,considering the fact that NIA said several times that those embassy are directly involed in terror funding in J&K?
3.Do you think that J-20 is a bigger threat to Su-30MKI or Rafales?
4.Do you predict for US-Pak. relation for next few months after Pakistan refused to let that Defense attachΓ© leave the country who killed a pakistani civilian?

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
Q1) Finally some good news it seems-
After 8 years, defence delegation heads to Italy to reboot ties
https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/after-8-years-defence-delegation-heads-to-italy-to-reboot-ties/amp_articleshow/64131491.cms

Will MoD remove finmeccanica/Leonardo S.p.A. from black-list? If not now then after 2019 elections given politicised Augusta deal?

Q2)Joint Exclusive Economic Zone Surveillance of Maldives

https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/joint-exclusive-economic-zone-surveillance-maldives

As you said many times before that "desi patrakaars" are making mountain of mole hill with articles like "maldives returns dhruv helis", "Pak army chief bajwa proposed joint patrols" etc while reality is far from it.
Will Abdula Yameen return to power in elections or not? What do you feel about maldives & its impact on India in near future?


Q3) Socorta island & UAE's strategic moves are worth attention by Indian strategists.
Any new updates on proposed Seychelles' Assumpton Island joint base? We should get that deal ratified by their parlient ASAP. There is no better deal for them we already gave too much iy seems like (a) It wont be used during war (b) they can walk out of the deal if they feel like etc
What do you say?

Q4)NSA Ajit Doval, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov discuss ways to combat terror
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/nsa-ajit-doval-russian-fm-sergei-lavrov-discuss-ways-to-combat-terror/amp_articleshow/64128656.cms

(1)Russia feels threatened by so called ISIS khurasan region it seems or is it just a justification to arm afghan taliban against american interests? But at present pak & russian interests align in afghan ie., removing US
(2) Recent proposed India China joint projects in Afghan is good move for ind, chinese, afghans and may be even pakistan like they feel china may ask India to stop supporting ttp type talibs? Or china won't care about pak as long as afghan provides security to wakhan corridor near uyghur?

Regards,
Anna

ashish gautam said...

Well the offensive assets of PAF & PA are sufficient enough to temporarily block our advancement inside their territory. No doubt in understanding that they will utilize them in most effective way they can but then it is dependent upon our offensive as well as defensive capabilities to prevent or reduce destruction caused by these assets to us.
Strike first strike hard.
1) kindly inform about 1500 medium battle tanks requirement posed by indian army, a update on it?

ANKIT KUMAR said...

https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/rfi-procurement-electro-optical-infra-red-search-and-track-system-eoirst

127 EOIRST... What's its intended purpose?

ashish gautam said...

Thanks for ur last answer.
I have a question regarding our nuclear capability, though I expect if its Congress in power at that time, India's soft approach against Pakistan won't let it use nuclear bomb in counter if Pak did it on us in case of a war. But still I wanna ask that -
1) what are generations of nuclear weapons? On what basis are they divided??
2) which generation weapons do we have today with us?
3) once u told that india has already dumped idea of aircraft droppable nukes, most are missile based, my question is those missile based nukes of india have yield of above 1MT in case of fusion device?

Rajesh Mishra said...

http://idrw.org/russia-inducts-its-own-carrier-killer-missile-and-its-more-dangerous-than-chinas/#more-169730

Shri PKS: Is this Kinzhal missile real or imagination. If real then whether it is ballistic or guided. Kindly reply.

Anonymous said...

https://www.dawn.com/news/1407227/ptm-leader-manzoor-pashteen-prevented-from-boarding-flight-to-karachi

https://www.dawn.com/news/1407233/ku-professor-dr-riaz-ahmed-missing-since-last-night-family-says

This tweet says-
"Over 150 people have been picked up several others are missing including Dr. Riaz Ahmed. The PTM demands that the Constitution of Pakistan be respected. That is all. If this is so threatening, then #dasangaazadida? All activists must be released immediately. #ReleasePTMactivists"
https://mobile.twitter.com/nidkirm/status/995072811541651456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dawn.com%2Fnews%2F1407233&tfw_site=dawn_com

Seems pak army is acting with knee jerk reactions
What do you feel? How will PTM transform in future? US media is already highlighting it. Does US support the PTM or just to irk pakistan regarding its afghan policy?

Regards,
Anna

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To INTOLERANT PERSON: 1) Not at all. It is all about trying to be in a state of denial, i.e. denying even internationally mandated human rights to its citizens of FAT & also in PoK. But the truth is out & thanks to the practice of WHATABOUTISM/WHATABOUTERY, Pakistan’s narrative on the situation inside J & K now stands totally nullified. 2) How many consulates does Pakistan have inside India? NONE. The only one in Mumbai was shut down in 1992 & the Indian Consulate in Karachi was shut down in 1994. 3) J-20 isn’t a threat even to the puny MiG-21Bison, rest assured. 4) Well, this is exactly what happens when countries like Pakistan decided to take up the job of pimping for the US during the Cold War era.

To ANNA: 1) But alas! BAE Systems is already in possession of the contract for 127mm naval huns, although OTOBreda still is supplying 76/62 SRGMs for the IN. Also, as I had predicted & explained, Intermarine SPA is the sole IPR holder of GRP-built hulls for minehunters that were offered by Kangnam Corp of South Korea. So there’s no other choice now but to go to Intermarine for procuring the MCMV hulls of GRP that Kangnam could never have supplied. Since this is now proven beyond any doubt, investigations must be launched against all those who had selected the Kangnam offer of MCMVs, starting with that Pariklkar fella during whose reign as RM the Kangnam bid was selected. In any case, the visuals released by Goa Shipyard Ltd during DEFEXPO 2016 clearly show Intermarine’s Lerichi-class MCMV hull as the preferred hull-design, as shown here:

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YrnVQ_ukzBU/Vv8J2w8UhNI/AAAAAAAAKhI/NKYqZu1OCMsAL_V76pSL60aN3kr5COYUw/s1600/Goa%2BShipyard%2BLtd-designed%2BMCMV-2.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-q7vmZxFRF7A/Vv8JxyZ9qQI/AAAAAAAAKhE/KRCCcFksRD8RgCzwRjPpTh3gN2HdrNB7g/s1600/Goa%2BShipyard%2BLtd-designed%2BMCMV-1.jpg

Therefore, it was ABSOLUTELY SHAMELESS on GSL’s part to show the Lerichi’s hull-design as being GSL’s own or that of Kangnam. Truly shocking state of affairs!!!

2) Whosoever comes to power in Maldives is that country’s own internal affair. Why should India be bothered about that country’s internal machinations? 3) Again, let the folks of Seychelles reach their own conclusions. Heavens won’t come down crashing if the deal isn’t ratified. There are several other worthwhile options now. 4) Rest assured that the presence of ISIS is a balloon being floated only by Pakistan. Safe havens for ISIS are inside Pakistan, some in Gilgit & others just below Gilgit. And after the PTM protests, the time is fast approaching when the residents of PoK too will start organising such mass protests, rest assured. Preparations are already underway.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: The original T-90S contract had called for a fleet of close to 1,500 such MBTs. To date only 600+ have been procured off-the-shelf (majoprity in knocked-down condition) & only 350 have been licence-built by HVF Avadi. Nuclear WMDS are NEVER meant for actual use. Only the THREAT to use them is useful & thus such WMDs are political weapons. India’s nuclear WMDs are of the latest generation in terms of all components, i.e. the fissile cores as well as triggering mechanisms & warhead re-entry heat-shields. Today one doesn’t require megaton yields. Achiecing 440kT yields through boosted fission is more than enough.

To ANKIT KUMAR: They are meant for all those RCWS that are to be installed on IN warships of all types. Here’s the RCWS:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7c5TxYBRfEM/WKWVYcUyk9I/AAAAAAAAMbk/2Jnaq5H2Xd0stUrQ6k6kIrtvs_-16ly_gCLcB/s1600/RCWS%2Bfor%2BArjun%2BMBT-1.JPG

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iHK3ELurvjk/WKWVvrKVPOI/AAAAAAAAMbs/2my4d6_eIsoHNkz1QV8AuI_IyJ_iI5MOQCLcB/s1600/RCWS%2Bfor%2BArjun%2BMBT-2.JPG

And here’s the type of optronic IRSTs reqd:

https://www.safran-electronics-defense.com/sites/sagem/files/surface_vessel_optronics.pdf
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o_ofYthox4g/UuVyNQiJZWI/AAAAAAAAGb4/6EJF6nVmFtk/s1600/Sagem+EOMS-NG+IRST-1.jpg

Even a version of the COMPASS turret from ELBIT Systems can do the job.

To RAJESH MISHRA: It is for real. It isn’t ballistic since only ground-launched missiles are ballistic. Air-launched missiles like this are air-breathing (also like BrahMos). But since the claimed speed is Mach 10, it is armed with a nuclear warhead whose only job is to create a strong EMP blast at high altitudes over a carrier battle group. China hasn’t been able to develop such a weapon as yet & therefore it has opted for a ballistic missile solution to do the same job, i.e. the DF-26 IRBM.

smith said...

Sir would you please provide your comments on the below link where Bharat Karnad is talking about Indias nuclear program, US India nuclear deal which will freeze indias nuclear weapon program specialy thermo nuclear which was sub-optimal and more tests are required to be carried out and is it really required as emphasized by Bharat Karnad?

https://youtu.be/u2klYwbViHs

Anonymous said...

http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/science/spacex-launches-bangladeshs-first-communications-satellite/article23863954.ece

What the hell isro is doing ? Why can’t India launch this what Antrix is doing?

Rande

Anik said...

Prasun da,

Any insight into air cavalry concept recently tested by Army during Excercise vijay prahar.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indian-army-tests-air-cavalry-concept/articleshow/64145758.cms?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=TOI&utm_content=om-bm&from=mdr


BTW here are some pictures from PTM rally in Karachi.
https://twitter.com/MJibranNasir/status/995658904666300416

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SMITH: That ‘Bandalbaaz No.1 was at his bullshitting best at that PUGWASH-organised seminar. Saying that he had been based in San Diego & that India was falling into a US trap & that he will soon reveal all in his forthcoming 800-page book on this issue. That’s why he gave the excuse of not wanting to go into the ‘technoical aspects’. In reality, this arsehole does not know the difference between a nuclear device & a weaponised nuclear warhead & that’s why he NEVER says a word about the latter. And that’s because this isn’t known even to BARC’s experimental nuclear physicists. Only the DRDO’s engineers are in the know & it was they who briefed the then three armed services chiefs in March 2002 during OP Parakram about the efficacy of India’s strategic nuclear deterrent arsenals. And at that time, it was publicly acknowledged by these Chiefs (that was also reported by the ‘desi’ press corps) that India’s nuclear WMD deterrent was ROBUST & CREDIBLE. All 3 Chiefs are still alive to day & can easily be asked for corroboration of all that I’m stating here. So, if everything’s just fine as advertised, then why the fuck should I believe a retard who knows ZILCH about the physics & engineering components of a weaponised nuclear weapon system? In fact, if I am to be presented with a copy of this retard’s forthcoming book, I would definitely choose to use the pages of that book as toilet paper! Because that’s all they are worth!!!

Meanwhile, I just can't figure out while the hell should the Army HQ's Public Interface Cell must release such a photo: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dczv6S2W0AAOGv3.jpg

Is this any way to prove that a Corps-level exercise is underway in Rajasthan??? Because the photo gives the image of the Army picniking in Mahajam Field Firing Range!

To RANDE: What's the max weight of the Bangladeshi satellite? Can the PSLV launch it, since the GSLV hasn't been cleared as yet to launch foreign satellites in suych weight categories? And aren't you forgetting that ISRO had already launched a slightly lighter comms satellite for SAARC member-states (except for Pakistan)?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANIK: LoLz! The Public Interface Cell of IA HQ is really tying itself into knots by making such outrageous claims. What took place earlier this month was combined arms warfare training involving for the very first time the IA's Rudra gunships & Mi-35Ps working together, much like the same way the US Army's AH-64A Apaches did during OP Desert Storm (as I've explained above). The term 'air cavalry' is nowadays known as air-assault in which armed infantry are heli-lifted along with their integral ultralight howitzers, mortars & LSVs in order to outflank the enemy or to block the enemy's escape route. The US Marine Corps calls this tactic VERTICAL ENVELOPMENT. Therefore, what the IA's PI Cell has described is just a combined arms operation being rehearsed, & not vertical envelopment or outflanking manoeuvre by any stretch of imagination. And BTW, such an outflanking manoeuvre was jointly conducted by the IA & IAF way back in December 1971 when an entire Brigade of the IA was heli-lifted by Agartala-based IAF Mi-4s across the Meghna River in then East Pakistan.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Meanwhile, news coming out of my sources in Pakistan after DAWN LEAKS-2 indicates that the previous COAS of the Pak Army, who was at severe odds with the PML-N over the issue of politically mainstreaming the extremist tanzeems (that would have eaten into the vote-banks of the PML-N in Punjab & this is what the real story behind DAWN LEAKS-1 was all about), was always rebuffed by Nawaz Sharif whenever the COAS wanted him to level allegations of India inciting terrorist incidents inside Pakistan. It is due to this reason that the operation to kidnap Kulbhushan Jadhav from Chabahar, Iran, was hatched in order to force Nawaz Sharif's hand & paint him as a traitor & thereby portray the PML-N in adverse light, which would then have facilitated the jihadi tanzeems to win significant vote-banks in Punjab, the PML-N's traditional electoral bastion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_B8bNVPney0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCidw2X_WOI

Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) names 20 militants associated with the LeT who were actively involved in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks and they still appear in the ‘fugitives’ category. They—all Pakistani nationals—include Muhammad Amjad Khan from Karachi, Iftikhar Ali of Faisalabad, Sufyan Zafar of Gujranwala, Muhammad Usman Zia of Rawalpindi, Muhammad Abbas Nasir of Khanewal, Javed Iqbal of Kasur, Mukhtar Ahmad of Mandi Bahauddin, Ahmed Saeed of Batagram, and Muhammad Khan of Balochistan. To this must be added Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Abdul Wajid, Mazhar Iqbal, Hamad Amin Sadiq, Shahid Jameel Riaz, Jamil Ahmed and Younis Anjum who are now undergoing trial in Pakistan. Four others - Abdullah Ubaid, Zafar Iqbal, Abdur Rehman Abid and Qazi Kashif Niaz--were also detained.

However, according to India’s NIA, the following are the real players behind 26/11: Brigadier Riaz, Major Sajid Mir, Major Samir Ali, Major Iqbal, Major Abdur Rehman Hashim (Pasha), Major Haroon Ashik, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Muzammil Bhat, Mazhar Iqbal (Abu Kafa), Abdul Wajid, Hamad Amin Sadiq, Shahid Jameel Riaz, Jamil Ahmed, Younis Anjum, Abu Qama, Abu Hamza, Yakub, Ehsanullah, Saad Shabbir, Kasim, Hassan, Rashid Abdullah, Abu Usama, Imran, and Abu Shoaib. The last one is Indian citizen Zabiuddin Ansari alias Abu Jundal.

Cont'd below

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

And here’s what really happened:

By 2008, Commander Muhammad Ilyas Kashmiri of the JeM (formed after breaking up with the Harkat-ul Jihad-i-Islami, or HUJI) had appeared on the horizon. Born in Bimbur (old Mirpur) in the Samhani Valley of POK on February 10, 1964, Ilyas passed the first year of a mass communication degree at Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad. He did not continue because of his involvement in Jihadi activities. The Kashmir separatist movement was his first exposure in the field of militancy. Then there was the, and ultimately his legendary 313 Brigade. This grew into the most powerful terrorist group in South Asia, with a strongly knit network in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Little is documented of Ilyas’s life. However, he was invariably described as the most effective, dangerous, and successful guerrilla leader in the world. Kashmiri left POK in 2005 after his second release from detention by the ISI, and headed for North Waziristan. He had previously been arrested by Indian security forces inside J & K, but had broken out of jail and escaped. He was next detained by the ISI as the suspected mastermind of an attack on then-President Gen Pervez Musharraf in 2003, but was cleared and released. The ISI picked Ilyas up again in 2005 after he refused to close down operations in J & K. His relocation to the troubled border areas sent a chill down spines in Washington. The US realised that with his vast experience, he could turn the unsophisticated battle blueprints in Afghanistan into audacious modern guerrilla warfare. Ilyas’s track record speaks for itself. In 1994, he had launched the Al-Hadid operation in New Delhi, to secure the release of some of his Jihadi comrades. His group of 25 included Sheikh Omar Saeed (the abductor of US reporter Daniel Pearl in Karachi in 2002) as his deputy. The group abducted several foreigners, including UK, US, and Israeli tourists, and took them to Ghaziabad near Delhi. They then demanded that the Indian authorities release their colleagues. Instead the Indians attacked their hideout. Ilyas escaped unhurt. On February 25, 2000, the Indian Army killed 14 civilians in the village of Lonjot in POK after its SF (Para) forces had crossed the Line of Control (LoC). They returned to the Indian side with abducted Pakistani girls, and threw the severed heads of three of them at the Pakistan Army soldiers manning their side. The very next day, Ilyas conducted an operation against the Indian Army in Nakyal sector after crossing the LoC with 25 fighters from 313 Brigade. They kidnapped an Indian Army officer and beheaded him. This officer's head was then paraded in the bazaars of Kotli in POK.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Ilyas's deadliest operation took place in the Akhnoor cantonment in J & K against the Indian Army in 2002. In this, he planned attacks involving 313 Brigade divided into two groups. Indian Generals, Brigadiers, and other senior officials were lured to the scene of the first attack. Two Generals were injured (in contrast, the Pakistan Army did not manage to injure a single Indian Army General in three wars), and some Brigadiers and Colonels were killed. This was one of the most telling setbacks for India in the long-running insurgency in J & K. With Kashmiri's immense expertise in Indian operations, he stunned Al-Qaeda leaders with the suggestion that expanding the theatre of war was the only way to overcome the present impasse. He presented the suggestion of conducting such a massive operation inside India that it would bring India and Pakistan to war. With that, all proposed operations against Al-Qaeda would be brought to a grinding halt. Al-Qaeda excitedly approved the proposal to attack India. Kashmiri then handed over the plan to a very able former Pakistan Army Major from the Special Service Group (SSG), Haroon ‘Ashik’ Rasheed, who was also a former LeT commander who was still very close to LeT chiefs Zakiur Rahman Lakhvi and Abu Hamza. Haroon knew about a contingency ISI plan for a low-profile routine proxy operation in India to be executed by the LeT in the event of an all-out war between India and Pakistan. It had been in the pipeline for several years prior to 9/11. The former Army Major, with the help of Ilyas Kashmiri's men, were tasked by the ISI to implement this operation (in order to prevent the then Pakistani President Asif Zardari from making peace with India, just as in 2011 when the PA began beheading IA soldiers along the LoC in order to vitiate the atmosphere & thereby prevent Pakistan from awarding MFN status to India), and thus this very ISI contingency plan was turned it into the devastating 26/11 attacks in Mumbai on November 26, 2008. It was almost identical to 9/11 in that it aimed to provoke India to invade Pakistan in the same manner as 9/11 prompted the US to attack Afghanistan. The purpose of 26/11 was to distract Pakistan's attention from the ‘War on Terror’, thereby allowing Al-Qaeda the space to manipulate its war against NATO in Afghanistan.

In August 2009 India has shared its sixth and last dossier given to Pakistan with as many as 16 countries including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Japan, Singapore, the US, the UK and Israel whose citizens were killed in the attacks.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ZIRCON: Try reading this book:

https://www.amazon.in/gp/product/0670089680/ref=ox_sc_act_title_5?ie=UTF8&psc=1&smid=A1W33I63XW2ME2

And 2 excellent books with superb assessments based on empirical research:

https://www.amazon.in/dp/0670090786/ref=pe_3025041_189395861_pe_194751_29698841_dp_1

https://www.amazon.in/dp/0199404585/ref=pe_3025041_185740121_TE_item

The one by Tariq Khosa reveals interesting details into the FIA's inbestigations on the 26/11 masterminds & what was uncovered by the FIA.

ashish gautam said...

Why modi govt didn't conducted any offensive undercover or open operation in Pakistan to avenge 26/11?

ashish gautam said...

As per current political situation in WB, do u think that Modi govt will impose President rule in state either before 2019 election or post it??
Seems mamta has become full fledged dictator in state....

ARUN said...

Dear Sir

Could you also please Write a paragraph on the LOC Fights of
2001 ; 2002 and 2003 WHICH FORCED Pakistan to Request INDIA for a CEASEFIRE

How many Pakistani Soldiers did we kill in that Period

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

If meteor like AAM is installed on Tejas, what will be it's capacity without IRST sensor and MAWS? If it's escorted by Sukhoi, will it be a potential platform in a high intensity war against Pak/China?

Rachit Singh said...

sir, is there any update regarding the HAL LCH? has the production started and have the orders been placed? How many HAL Rudra does the army operate and what is the main differnce between the rudra and LCH?

Kapil said...

Prasun da, Nawaz could have simply followed the PA dictations and saved his skin. But he resisted and was thrown out as a result. So has Nawaz Sharif changed as a person, or just trying to extract a deal from PA?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Why single out only 26/11? Or Pathankot? Or Uri? What about Hiranagar? Or the 1993 Mumbai bomb blasts? And why President’s rule only in WB? Why not in Kerala or Rajasthan or UP where violence-levels are much higher & are the highest in J & K? What is so exceptional about WB? Let’s be faor & objective & deal with comparative data & not carried away by visuals or videoclips.

To ARUN: They all involved field artillery fire-assaults from 1993 right up to 2002. More PA soldiers were killed than their IA counterparts, that is a given.

To ASD: If Meteor BVRAAM is to be installed, then the THALES-built RBE-2 ASESA-MMR will have to be installed as well, since the ELTA-built EL/M-2052 cannot be interfaced with the Meteor.

To RACHIT SINGH: No updates on either the LCH or the LUH. Both projects are running far behind schedule.

To KAPIL: He has now internationalised the issue of his political survival by naming Presidents Xi & Putin in his quotes. Now if over the next 24 hours neither Xi or Putin debunks or denies what Nawaz Sharif has stated, then Pakistan is in for a back-breaking landing indeed!

Anonymous said...

Now Modi is traveling to Russia for informal talks. What does it really mean?

Sumit

Kaustav said...

I SINCERELY HOPE THAT OUTDATED CLICHE OF 'WHAT BENGAL THINKS TODAY , INDIA THINKS TOMORROW' NO LONGER HOLDS TRUE IN VIEW OF THE CONTRAST IN CONDUCT OF PANCHAYAT POLLS IN WB & ASSEMBLY POLLS IN KARNATAKA.
The Karnataka Assembly polls on May 12, 2018 went off without any violence and was conducted peacefully.
The West Bengal GRAM PANCHAYAT polls on May 14, 2018, saw widespread violence, beatings and a death toll of 37 plus with scores injured.
Sir, your justification that there are states with more violence is hardly acceptable and it would be better if the Southern States show the way forward.

Parvesh said...

sir, you said 15 squadrons of su-30mki.
1) how many aircraft are their in each squadron of sukhoi?
2) what are the new bases where they are based?

The Indian said...

Prasun,
Based on Nawaz Sharif's admission statement can we take Pakistan to the ICJ/United Nations.What are our options as the injured party.If we are in the right will this administration have the guts to do it?What is your opinion?

Harsh said...

Few months back there was news of purchase of 1000 spice-250 glide bombs from Israel which have a 100km range along with the 164 litening g4 pods which you mentioned.
Any updates on the the spice-250 deal??

Prranshu Yadav said...

Can you please give your openion on this?

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/hal-offers-40-more-sukhois-at-one-third-of-rafale-s-cost-118051500055_1.html

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada a very elobrative and informative post..is there anything you donot know
Your post must have shaken so many people.

Few questions pop up in my mind, would request u to address them kindly
1. Is there any possibility India achieving the desired 45 squardons mark
2. How do we hold against China and Pakistan combine, we definately have edge over PAF
3. Any possibilities of More AWAC planes gets ordered by IAF
4. Why LCH is taking so much time and when do u see the first orders getting delivered
5. Isn't ALARM anti radiation missiles outdated ones
6. Pls detail out what ammunations cosnsits of WWR and presently India holds how many days WWR stock, Pakistan u explained holds 8 days WWR and what WWR stockpiles does China holds

just_curious said...

Prasun,

- what the sudden hoopola about B05 sub launched missile, wasn't this tested using pontoons long time ago ? Also is this a completely new missile or a variant of prithvi/ pralay missile?

- what's happening with Nirbhay? any newtets planned? by when will it see service? Will it be developed into a family of missiles with different ranges & payload

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: LoLz! One cannot compare apples with oranges. State Assembly polls & Gram Panchayat polls are 2 totally different affairs. In case of the latter, there are always far higher levels of violence because the perhaps literate but mostly uneducated rural folks are far more easier to get intimidated & dictated than those living in urban or semi-urban areas. Even in case of the latter, one would have noticed that yesterday the majority of them working as domestic helpers or maidservants or manual labourers had taken the day off. Why? Because they or their relatives were intimidated since the past week to definitely go back to their constituencies to vote, failing which they & their relatives would be subjected to verbal abuse, JHOGRA & social ostracisation. Therefore, a climate of fear & consequently violence always pervades EVERYWHERE during Gram Panchayat polls anywhere in India. And WB is no exception.

To PARVESH: 18 per Sqn. Where they are? Do check the earlier thread on the IAF’s combat aircraft ORBAT, or just Google for that thread.

To THE INDIAN: What for? Nawaz Sharif has only made an ADMISSION. Now that has to be backed up with undeniable material evidence & not mere circumstantial evidence. And such undeniable evidence cannot emerge unless the on-going trial in Pakistan is concluded. And that’s why the trial process there continues to be stalled on various flimsy grounds.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Here it is: A Su-30 MKI that would cost Rs.227 crore when built in Russia, rolls out of HAL's Nashik plant for over Rs.358 crore and an airframe modified to launch the BrahMos-A will cost Rs.425 crore. This considerable mark-up is due to the extra man-hours that are required by HAL to build the Su-30MKI. For the licence-built Su-30MKIs therefore, India has had to fork out an extra Rs.131 crore per aircraft, or a whopping Rs.35,632 crore that could have been saved had all the Su-30MKIs been procured off-the-shelf. More than 51% of the Su-30MKI by value is currently made in India, a little more than the 49% agreed with Russia in the contract signed in 2000 to licence-build the Su-30MKIs in India. Of the 43,000 components that go into a Su-30MKI, 31,500 components—or 73%--are now being built in India. Further indigenisation is IMPOSSIBLE since the India-Russia inter-governmental contract mandates that all raw materials that go into the Su-30MKI--including 5,800 titanium blocks and forgings, aluminium and steel plates, etc--must be sourced from Russia. The contract also stipulates that another 7,146 items like nuts, bolts, screws and rivets must be sourced from Russia. 53% of the AL-31FP turbofan by cost has been indigenised, with the remaining 47% consisting of high-tech composites and special alloys—proprietary secrets that Russia will not part with. Even so, HAL builds 87.7% of the AL-31FP’s components in India, while the most critical ones are sourced from Russia. HAL has proposed to the MoD that the IAF must order spares required over a five-year period, stocking them at the IAF’s Nashik-based 25 Equipment Depot. Separately, HAL has offered the IAF “Performance-Based Logistics” (PBL) for the Su-30MKI fleet—a solution that has since been adopted by the MoD and the IAF.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: VMT. 1) Yes, but late into the following decade. 2) That will be explained later in this thread. 3) Contract documents for an additional A-50I PHALCON are now awaiting signature. 4) Because its developmental process has been sequential. i.e. first HAL gets to develop the flying platform & then it is passed on to the DRDO to weaponise it. The process should have been concurrent. 5) Not at all. 6) They cannot be detailed here as there are hundreds of items involved. China holds about 28 days of WWR in some cases, but China’s ammo production rates are far higher & quicker because of large-scale usage of industrial robotics, & not human resources.

To JUST_CURIOUS: Prithvi is liquid-fuelled, B-05 is solid-fuelled. Pralay is ground-launched while B-04 is SSBN-launched. Nirbhay’s R & D process will be completed at best only by 2020. Here’s more info:

http://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/pub/techfocus/2018/May/mobile/index.html#p=1

To HARSH: What Spice-250 deal? It was paid news & plain rumourmongering. Why should India acquire Spice-250 when the SAAW (structurally identical to Spice-250) is already being co-developed by the DRDO & RAFAEL?

Anonymous said...

It seems Nawaz isn't backing down. Worth mentioning points from this news:
1)Nawaz rejected the NSC statement today, describing it as "painful and regrettable", and said that it was "not based on facts".("painful & regrettable" are pretty strong words though they are true against a NSC statement from PM by exPM of same party.)

2)He reiterated his demand for the formation of a national commission to decide who committed treason and said that it would allow all facts to become clear.

3)"We should find out who laid the foundation of terrorism in the country," he asserted.(Who did prasun sir? I am curious. To be fair even Jinnah used "non state actors" aka afghan and NWFP tribals to capture gilgit and PoK.)

4)"Pakistan is not becoming isolated, it is already isolated. Tell me which country stands with us, is there any?" he asked.(Is it for FATF?)

5)"Even at that time, the same things ─ getting our house in order ─ were being discussed in an NSC meeting," he pointed out, referring to a 2016 meeting in which, Dawn had reported, the civilian government had informed the military leadership of Pakistan's growing international isolation and sought consensus on several key actions by the state."At that time, this matter was turned into 'Dawn leaks'," he said.

Link-https://www.dawn.com/news/1407824/nawaz-rejects-nsc-statement-deems-it-painful-and-regrettable

From your reply-
To KAPIL: He has now internationalised the issue of his political survival by naming Presidents Xi & Putin in his quotes. Now if over the next 24 hours neither Xi or Putin debunks or denies what Nawaz Sharif has stated, then Pakistan is in for a back-breaking landing indeed!

Neither Xi nor Putin denied hi statements! So, Dawn Leaks, FATF grey/black listing, Chinese suggestion to do more on extremisim etc all are falling in places one by one it seems. What is your opinion on this?

Regards,
Anna

just_curious said...

Prasun, your reply to PRRANSHU YADAV is not clear to me .. should IAF opt for moer rafales or take up HAL's offer

just_curious said...

prasun,

on new engines for future aircraft's or say super sukhoi upgrade , what is your opinion on the new SU 57 engine which Russia has started testing ? Also is DRDO working with rolls royce on a new jet engine?

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. perhaps for 1st you wont be angry with Ajai Shukla as he almost says all right things except for thre number that shopuld be 312 to 352 instead he says 272 to 312

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2018/05/hal-offers-40-more-sukhoi-30s-at-one.html

sorry i had forgotten to ask about these

2. you said this in the defexpo thread

The DAC also approved the procurement of 13 127mm calibre guns from BAE Systems of the US for over Rs.3,000 crore.

but below images in NAMICA thread says they are actually 76 mm guns only, may typo errror on their part, btw 7+4 is 11 so the 2 extra are for replacement on kolkata class i guess

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/search?updated-max=2018-05-05T05:57:00%2B05:30&max-results=7

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/search?updated-max=2018-05-05T05:57:00%2B05:30&max-results=7

3. years back i had heard that a plan exists of putting 12 NAG missile on Namica launchers, is that plan still on

4. regarding your thought about converting southern IN command into fighting command, i always had a though that it was rather odd to put masive ships like destroyera in Vizag/eastern command as due to its geographical location and dimension the area is quite secure to need to be defended by destroyers submarines/ASW ships/ASW aircraft would suffice to patrol Bay of Bengal whereas all destroyersfrom eastern IN command should instead be placed in Andaman Tri command and Kochi southern command as only then we can project ourselves as true blue water navy launching destroyers in deep international waters, i never asked this bcoz people may perceive i overthink, but as you raised the issue i am asking you, i what i thught a bad idea?

5. looks like deal for 814 MGS is finally happening

http://idrw.org/army-moving-towards-procuring-mounted-gun-system-trying-to-revalidate-project/

6a. you always say Jaguars in marine strike role as stupidity and should be instead used by IAF in deep strike role, what is the mandate of marine strike Jaguars, why cant you suggest IAF to pull them out of that role. (since you say they take you seriously)

6b. i feel NLCA MK1 and NLCA MK2 operating from Andaman and Lakshadeep can well do that job as fighters and/or if their is option for buying 36 more Rafale jets over the 36 the IAF has contracted plus the 110 foe which RfP has been issued can perform maritime deep strike roles, for me in this role Rafale jets fit well since the land based and carrier based jets are almost identical. Dont say their is no money as any case it will not happen anytime before 2025 by that ime i think we will have enough money.

6c. To me the sole reason 126 jet MMRCA deal was cancelled by the current govt was due to ego issue as it thought that this govt that has most people from business community can clinch a better deal and previous govt had mostly bureaucrats were not qualified enough

7. regarding Somaliland what i wanted to say that India never deals with anyone who it doesnt recognize that is why India should have recognized Somaliland in 2010-12 and invested in berbera, hergeisa itself when Somaliland govt started economic growth push that would allowed India to virtually control the stretch of water from horn of africa to malacca straights

your views

Joydeep Ghosh

Pratap said...

I have a question about Kargil. How many Pakistani soldiers were killed in the war? PA of course did not give any official figure. Nawaz sharif claims that 3000 soldiers including PA officers were killed. What is the real figure?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANNA: LoLz! The wily Nawaz Sharif has put the PA in a bind, because if he is to be tried for treason, then it means his revelations were 100% true. But this runs counter to Pakistan’s official narrative that the 26/11 attacks were conducted by Pakistani non-state actors that were not at all supported by the Pakistani State in any manner. Consequently, in order to carry on with this official narrative, no legal action will be taken against Nawaz Sharif by anyone inside Pakistan. As for sowing the seeds of terrorism inside Pakistan, one must take note that Pakistan does not recognize LeT or JuD or JeM as terrorist tanzeems simply because they are portrayed as fighting for the liberation of Kashmir. That’s why whenever Pakistan claims that it has eradicated terrorism from its soil, it does not include the LeT or JuD or JeM as tanzeems that have been eliminated. And this is also why Pakistan glorifies folks like Burhan Wani as revolutionary Mujahideen. And ultimately, this is why Pakistan’s claims on the Kashmir Valley & PoK are IDEOLOGICAL (spurred by the country’s religiosity-based national ideology that justifies the establishment of an Islamic State for Muslims)), and not political or territorial. And as per the UN Charter, the UN cannot play in role in ideological disputes; it can do so only in political/territorial disputes. And that is exactly why no one in the UN except Pakistan is interested in raising the Kashmir bogey or even bothering about it. That’s how the bulk of the international legal experts interpret this issue.

To JUST_CURIOUS: What I had stated is that licence-building an aircraft from anywhere is a NO-BRAINER, Period, since it 1) costs a lot more to do so’ & 2) it never gives any degree of self-sufficiency or self-reliance, meaning if tomorrow Russia decides to impose sanctions against India, then all licence-built hardware of Russian origin will become white elephants because the most critical components are always reqd to be imported as per Russian insistence. Hence, the official narrative by successive Govts of India which claims that licenced-production of foreign military hardware promotes military self-sufficiency, is total hogwash, utter baloney & a gross distortion of facts. Hence, if promotion of self-reliance is of paramount importance, then it imperative that all those hardware that are reqd but cannot be developed in-country must be imported off-the-shelf so that they are much more cheaper in terms of procurement costs. And the industrial offsets clauses for all such procurements must compulsorily mandate ‘buy-back’ provisions that will promote Indian industrialization. And the money saved (by avoiding licenced-production) should be invested in the in-country developed of indigenous weapon systems & platforms that arte globally competitive & that can therefore have export potential.

New turbofan for Super Su-30MKI as well as for those Su-30MKIs that require re-engining is this:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kmEKFtgm2Ho/WK3tVaBPiYI/AAAAAAAAMh0/YKD_U4VIQ6kfqKYHiuTba4dR7bV6bJJsACLcB/s1600/AL-41.jpg

Definitive turbofan for FGFA will not be available for another six years at the very least.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) LoLz! Are you also supporting his bullshitting? How can Su-30MKI be a substitute for Rafales? Can Su-30MKI fly in terrain avoidance mode? Does the Su-30MKI come equipped with AESA-MMR? So, do think again, reflect & introspect & then reach a conclusion on whether or not the ‘desi’ bandalbaaz’ is yet again comparing apples with oranges. 2) Scale-model representation (especially in the ‘desi’ scale-models made in India) are NEVER representative of the definitive design. In addition, the 127mm naval guns are meant for drop-in installation & can therefore easily fit into any area already earmarked for 76/62 SRGMs. 3) No. There’s no space on the turret after installation of the two COMPASS optronic sensors. 4) There isn’t enough space anywhere in A & N island-chain for building a full-fledged naval fleet HQ & all over the world fleet HQs are always located on the mainland. Hence, the one at Vizag is the best location as its navigation is through a well-protected channel. In A & N islands, there are no such natural protective channels or coves. 5) It should have happened in the previous decade itself, instead of wasting tiome & money on the ATAGS. Future wars will be extremely fast-paced along non-linear battlefields where mobility will be of the essence. Consequently, only idiots will invest in towed field artillery howitzers for employing them on the plains & deserts. Towed artillery howitzers are good only for those countries that are island-based & which therefore require such weapons only for anti-invasion offshore bombardment from the coastlines. 6A) I have NEVE claimed that the IAF takes me seriously. Instead, it has always been you who have claimed & opined that I am known to ‘high officials in the corridors of power’. 6B) Why not use the IN’s MiG-29Ks for such jobs? 6C) Even this present-day govt has not approved the 126-aircraft MMRCA deal. 7) That cannot be done because India does not recognize any country that is not recognized by the UN. That is the state policy of the MEA.

Harindar Sikka on SEHMAT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXtdVyao8K4

five Pakistani terrorists have managed to infiltrate via a tunnel in Kathua.on May 13, 2018.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/5-pakistani-terrorists-infiltrate-via-tunnel-in-kathua-1234142-2018-05-15

All the more reason to wrest Chicken’s Neck away from Pakistan for good!

To PRATAP: Do go through this:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2013/01/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-op.html

To RAJESH MISHRA: https://redsamovar.com/2018/03/03/actu-le-missile-hypersonique-kh-47m2-kinzhal/

ashish gautam said...

Sir, in your reply to joydeep ghosh regarding su30mki comparison with rafale... I have a question that offer being made by HAL does not include AESA MMR? As they said that it will have heavy hard point for brahmos, new avionics etc for which sukhoi is asking 50% share...
2) in case of overall fleet upgrade for which HAL said 100 crore per aircraft.. Doesn't it include AESA MMR??
3) If it includes AESA MMR then which radar would be selected??

Prranshu Yadav said...

Thanks for your previous replies. I just have 3 more questions,

1. How many jaguars are currently in service with IAF?

2. You mentioned that 64 of the jaguars are being upgraded to darin3 standards. Does this mean the rest of jaguars will be retired or will they continue in service as darin 2 aircraft?

3. After being retired, are IAF aircraft kept in reserve or scrapped?

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,
Please provide your opinion on kaveri engine k9 and k10 variants and their operational timeframes. Also how many F414 engines have been delivered and by what time all 99 engines will be delivered.

Unknown said...

Hi prasun the centre has agreed to ceasefire during Ramzan in kashmir just like the Vajpayee government. Do you feel the central government has any intention to tackle terrorism properly?importantly with this mindset will they ever have the balls to take pok militarily. Do give ypur suggestions

ashish gautam said...

Can u provide details of this RFP?
http://www.defencenews.in/article/India-issues-an-RFP-for-acquiring-200-Kamov-helicopters-from-Russia-558274

Kaustav said...

Chicken Neck is a long way off, we are now engaging in unilateral ceasefires, heaven knows with who.

ashish gautam said...

1) Sir the LUH being developed by HAL will b armed like rudra?
2) the unarmed version of LUH which will b offered to armed forces after completion of trials, will come equipped with on board EO POD, MAWS etc?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: How can AESA-MMR go on Su-30MLI? Only the Super Su-30MKI will have AESA-MMR. It was all explained here years ago:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2011/05/super-su-30mki-from-air-dominance-to.html

As for Ka-226T-6, the Russians have cleared stated this: At least 140 helicopters will be assembled at the facilities of the joint venture with a gradual increase of the localization level. At first, components and final-assembly technologies will be transferred and the provisions will be made for the organization of production in India, then production of components from the supplied materials and assembly of helicopters will begin, and, finally, complete assembly of the helicopters will be organized. In other words, the same processes as those the Su-30MKI’s licenced-production that I had explained yesterday! So where’s the so-called indigenisation & self-sufficiency? What’s the cost differential between a HAL-assembled Ka-226T-6 & one built by Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant? And most importabtl;y, why are the Ruskies keeping MUM about the Arrius engines, despite knowing that the sanctions imposed on Russia by France prevents SAFRAN/Turbomeca from supplying such engines for military helicopters either for use by Russia or for those meant for export? Hence, this RFP is doomed for death for sure. It therefore looks like India is headed right into the middle of yet another controversial deal that will cause severe embarrassment, all thanks to those ‘Netas’ who idiotically decided to opt for the Ka-226T-6 instead of expediting the development of the home-grown LUH!!! LUH cannot be armed as heavily as Rudra. But it will carry 70mm rocket pods, Mistral ATAM & will have EW suite comprising RWR, LWR & MAWS.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Of the 196 BAE Systems/SEPECAT Jaguar IS procured between 1982 and 2008, about 183 are in service. The rest too are earmarked for upgrades. Only the first 40 off-the-shelf imported Jaguars will be retired by 2024. After decommissioning, all such aircraft are scrapped.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HARDIK THANKI: LoLz! Don’t go by all that’s dished by delusional ‘desi patrakaars’. K-9 turbofan rated at 99kN will take 18 months to design, followed by 5 years of flight-testing on LCA-AF Mk.2 prototypes. Laws of physics, for which the ‘desi’ patrakaars’ show particular disdain, dictate that if a higher thrust turbofan is installed on Tejas Mk.1 or Mk.1A, then the air-intakes will have to be radically redesigned for ensuring greater airflow. If such redesigning is done, then subsequent flight-tests will have to be conducted for a period of not less than 5 years since a new turbofan design will be tested. So, will anyone in their right mind will even dream about it, since it will involve freezing the series-production of Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A for 18 months + 5 years? This is why the laws of physics need to be respected, instead of being carried away by whimsical day-dreaming! And as per the Russia-India intergovernmental agreement, Su-30MKIs throughout their service-lives (including the Super Su-30MKIs) will be powered by Russia-origin turbofans. Hence, re-engining with non-Russian turbofans is OUT OF THE QUESTION.

To KAUSTAV, UNKNOWN & PRATAP: I’m afraid you all are jumping to premature conclusions. Analyse these: Firstly, the IA will have the right to retaliate if any convoy, camp or patrol is attacked. Secondly, the IA will be allowed to pro-actively conduct specific intelligence-based operations (IBO)—meaning SADO (seek-and-destroy) operations will continue. Though the IA’s “area domination patrols” will continue as before, “pro-active” CASO (cordon-and-search) and SADO operations will be “curtailed” (LoLz! How exactly, if IBOs are being allowed to continue?) during Ramzan. Some CASO/SADO operations, however, will be required to continue to sanitize, for instance, roads for vehicular movements. The “pro-active dominance” of the 778km-long LoC with Pakistan will, however, continue apace with targetted cross-border fire assaults to deter infiltration as well as inflict costs on the PA.

So, in my view, the Ramzan ceasefire announcement is nothing else but a verbal PR exercise & nothing changes on the ground.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Have added above the concluding part of the narrative of this thread. The following thread will deal with the topic of how exactly the next round of military hostilities unfold on the western front, and what will be the principal area of operations & why, and what more is reqd WRT higher directions of war (i.e. war directives), AirLand force postures, and hardware accretions, in order to achieve the desired limited objectives.

Meanwhile, the opening of the US Embassy in Jerusalem amidst the on-going clashes between the Gazans & the IDF hasn't caused the heavens to come crashing down. And that's because over the decades since the late 1960s, the Palestinian cause has degenerated from a territorial issue into an ideological issue, i.e. one involving Arab identity & later a Pan-Mislim identity involving the so-called Muslim Ummah. Therefore, its fate today is the same as that of Kashmir as espoused by Pakistan & therefore the world at large will no longer bother to shed any more crocodile tears on any religiosity-inspired violent intifadah of any type in any corner of the world. This is the writing on the wall & the GoI's Ramzaan ceasefire offer is therefore the last & final offer to those in the Kashmir Valley who are misguided/ill-informed, to mend their ways.

Ab bhi waqt hai, sudhar jaao aur Allah ke asli bande ban jaao. Warna bahut hi bura anjaam hoga.

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Eagerly waiting for your next thread. Even if the next war with Pakistan is intended to liberate Pok from Pakistan, we could expect them to use nuclear weapons. Won't it escalate into full scale nuclear war?

Would like to know more about Pralay missile. Is it under testing? What's so special about it?

Thanks...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ready-to-join-dialogue-with-india-pak-army/article23905872.ece?homepage=true

Four Indian journalists were invited by the ISPR for on-the-record interviews earlier this week by the very DG of ISPR who 2 months ago had referred to India as being the 'perpetual enemy'. These are meant to be feelers being sent to India for reducing the heat that the PA has been facing at the LoC since the last quarter of 2016. So sttrition has at last taken its toll & the PA wants to make a tactical or temporary peace at a time when Nawaz Sharif has gone on-record to quote the Chinese & Russian Presidents who have demanded the same from Pakistan, i.e. don't try to take 'pangga' with India, for you won't win at a time when Pakistan this year alone is reqd to pay back US$13 billion as interest payments on loans it had obtained earlier.

Meanwhile, at a seminar yesterday (http://usiofindia.org/Events/View/?eid=489), not a single serving diplomat or service officer or even most of the retired ones eveb had a clue as to what the UAE is up to in Eritrea, Somaliland, Puntland, Socotra & Aden.

Gopu said...

Who will manufacture PGHSLD?

https://www.hindustantimes.com/kolkata/guns-used-by-british-indian-army-and-during-b-desh-liberation-war-smuggled-out-of-ofb-unit-in-bengal/story-rz3Ys1zmjXRDy6xehY9qMI.html

More reason not to nominate OFB for SLR.

Parvesh said...

Sir, you said 184 jaguar are still in service. But you said earlier that only 5 squadrons of jaguar are in service.
1. How many jaguar are there in each squadron
2. Why only 5 squadron when they can make upto 8 or 9 squadron (21 aircraft each squadron )
3. How many jaguar are in reserve. Why not use them for new. squadrons .
4. How many jaguar are of maritime strike type available now as few of them crashed over the years.

Thanks

ashish gautam said...

Thanks for further clarification sir. Looking forward for ur new thread.
Kashmir ka anjam to pta Nai kya hoga... Phle 2019 mei bjp with full majority at its own aa jae... Uske bad he kuch theek hoga in Kashmir too...

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada read Ur comments and previous thread on super Sukhoi upgrades
What are the fresh timelines and total no of aircraft getting the upgrades

just_curious said...

Prasun

-Further to your reply to Ashish Gautam with the link to your article u shared in 2011[7 years ago] what all new additions/enhancementts could possibly go into the super sukhoi more specifically from SU 57? eg say the L-band radar etc...

Prranshu Yadav said...

Hold on a minute. With respect to brahmos you wrote,

"The air-launched BrahMos-A and its successor, the BrahMos-NG (now under development and slated for service-entry by 2023), when used in conjunction with the SIVA HADF pod, are the principal weapons to be employed against hostile AEW & CS platforms. Equipped with an imaging X-band SAR seeker, such missiles when launched from two different directions at any airborne AEW & CS platform, can cruise at altitudes higher than those of such platforms and can zero in on their targets through a lofted trajectory in the terminal flight phase, almost in a top-attack mode."

Are you implying that brahmos-ng will be used in air to air role???

On a different note, you mentioned that IAF will use nirbhay and brahmos for destruction of airbases. Can you please explain what kind of warhead nirbhay will need to carry to destroy runways? As far as i know you need runway penetrating submunitions like those carried by apache missile for that purpose. But in the latest issue of technology focus its shown that a unitary penetration cum blast warhead has been developed for nirbhay so far. Also, will the 300 kg warhead of nirbhay be powerful enough to penetrate hardened aircraft shelters?

I think it would be great if in some future article you can describe the different kinds of warheads that nirbhay could carry.

Thanks

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Yemen-UAE dispute over Socotra ‘resolved’: Yemeni PM

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/yemen-uae-dispute-over-socotra-resolved-yemeni-pm/1144435

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2018/5/10/yemen-complains-to-un-about-uae-occupation-of-socotra

As per Yemen PM, Socortra Island issue with UAE is resolved. Now naturally some question arises

1. Why UAE suddenly occupied the Island?
2. Whether UAE occupied with Saudi support or Not?.
3. What is the position of US in this regard?
4. Yemen President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi Complains to UN.
5. Is Saudi with Hadi Side?
6. Now suddenly PM of Yemen is saying issue got resolved? Any Details.
7. No Statement from President Hadi regarding crisis resolved.

My suspicion is US Grand Plan to colonise Eritrea, Somaliland, Puntland, Socotra & Aden. By doing this they can hold the entire red sea under thier custody. So all passing ships including China will be under US Passage. UAE is just a pawn in the great game.

Please give your opinion.

Thanks
S. Senthil Kumar

Gessler said...

Hi Prasun ji,

Long time since I posted here. First of all I want to congratulate you on this excellent piece you've written (and still writing given the fact it's not concluded yet), and I must say it was all probably the most interesting & informative thing I've read on the internet in quite a while.

Just one thing that caught my eye...you mentioned ALARM anti-radar missiles will be procured for the Rafales? This is news to me as I thought the DRDO-developed NG-ARM will find use across the IAF. So why ALARM? Is the NG-ARM that's under development facing problems? Will the ALARM purchase be a stop-gap till NG-ARM is ready? Or will there be any problems with regard to integrating the NG-ARM to the Rafale?

From what I know the ALARM has never actually been mated to the Rafale so far. The French air forces were still using Martel ARMs in Libya.

Thanks in advance!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GOPU: LoLz! You are ASSUMING that siuch incidents are limited to ONLY the OFB’s RFI. How do you think the dacoits in the Chambal ravines used to get their ammo in the previous decades? Obviously from OFB’s production factories located in MP. PGHSLD is actually kit that can be mated to existing dumb bombs. The kits will be built by OFB & BDL.

To PARVESH: 1) 18. 2) Because the older the aircraft gets the greater the nos of airframes that are held as reserves. 3) Close to 60. 4) 10.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Kashmir ka anjaam kya hoga? Well, if the stone-pelters don’t mend their ways, they will suffer the same fate as their northern neighbours. Do read what’s happening there:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/worse-than-prison-a-rare-look-inside-chinas-detention-camps-to-brainwash-muslims/articleshow/64205285.cms

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: Timelines are still hazy, but projections call for the upgrade work to commence by the year’s end. The entire Su-30MKI fleet is due to be upgraded in successive tranches. But the degree of upgrades will vary, for instance not all of them will incorporate the wing-mounted L-band AESA array.

To JUST_CURIOUS: Su-57’s avionics suite is tailor-made for that airframe, especially its distributed apertures for the AESA-MMR and therefore this can’t go on board the Super Su-30MKI.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Why not? What’s the utility of carrying a solitary BrahMos-A armed with a 200kg warhead? Will it be able to cause sufficient damage to any ground-based installation? No. Will it be possible to launch eight Su-30MKIs at one go to attack a single target with eight BrahMos-As? Absolutely not. Can BrahMos-A be used for maritime strike. Yes, but how will target acquisition be done, since the Su-30MKI’s RLSU-30 PESA-MMR has only a 130km-range and therefore the BrahMos-A with 290km-range can’t strike a target beyond 130lm? But yes, a BrahMos-A with its SGH IMR-SAR seeker preprogrammed to scan for & lock on to an airborne with RCS of more than 20 sq metres at altitudes ranging from 15,000 feet ASL to 30,000 feet ASL can easily do the job in a top-attack mode since the SGH seeker ‘s antenna has the diameter equivalent to the antenna of an aircraft’s MMR & can therefore search a wide swath/volume of airspace both in azimuth & elevation. Furthermore, any hostile AEW & CS platform will always be accompanied by at least 2 escorting MRCAs at any given time, with four more on scramble alert on the ground. The AEW & CS platform itself will be operating deep in the enemy’s interior. Consequently, for the IAF’s combat aircraft to attempt interceptions will be foolhardy, since the element of surprise will never exist. The only solution therefore is to use long-range supersonic cruise missiles. BrahMos-1 won’t be used for destroying air bases, but rather for specifically targetting the ammo/POL storage sites within the air bases. The Nirbhays will be used for targetting the HAS sites. Whenever runways are attacked with any type of munitions, they can be rapaired & restored within a matter of hours. The far better targets therefore are the HAS installations containing enemy MRCAs. This is exactly what the US did last year when it unleashed 57 TLAMs armed with blast-fragmentation penetration warheads against a Syrian air base.

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: That is very much possible.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: VMT indeed. If you check out Dassault Aviation’s Rafale-specific webpages, you will see that hardware like Litening LDP, ALARM, Spice 1000, X-Guard etc etc are not mentioned. But the webpages do state that the Rafales built to the latest F3-04T-standard feature MIL-STD-1760-compliant stores management system is (SMS), which provides for easy integration of customer-selected weapons. And this again is possible because the SMS is compatible with the Rafale’s mission computer (MC), which is elementary since both the SMS & MC are supplied by THALES. And that’s why non-French weapons & avionics like SCALP, MICA-EM/IR, Meteor, ALARM, Litening LDP & X-Guard towed-decoy etc etc can be integrated with ease on both the Rafale & upgraded Mirage 2000N. For IAF-specified non-French weapons like Griffin-3 or Spice-1000, integration is being done at extra cost. The keys to seamless weapons integration are therefore the MC & SMS that MUST be compatible & that’s why the IAF has since the 1980s placed heavy emphasis on these two avionics sub-systems being indigenous (developed by DARE) so that weapons from various OEMs can be integrated on platforms like MiG-29UPG, Jaguar IS/DARIN-2/3, Su-30MKI and Tejas Mk.1/Mk/1A. But the MC for both Rafale & upgraded Mirage 2000N is from THALES & hence everytime a non-French weapon or mission avionics is reqd for installation/integration, it will have to be done at extra cost. As for NG-ARM, it will be available at the same time as the Rafales start being delivered in the following decade & therefore NG-ARM won’t go on the Rafales from Day-1 of the Rafale’s service-induction. But NG-ARMs will go on Jaguar IS/DARIN-3, MiG-29UPG & Tejas Mk.1/Mk/1A for starters, followed by the Super Su-30MKIs. It is also due to compatibility of MCs & SMS that the AIM-132 ASRAAMs & Derbys can be seamlessly installed on Tejas Mk.1/Mk.1A & the AIM-132 ASRAAM on the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3.

Have uploaded above the data on the X-Guard towed-decoy & its usage methodology & here is its photo:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RS0NwBNmHS0/Wv3DSn9W--I/AAAAAAAAO68/QDdjXYlDpYcpMzh_h4_iKCwUpNBdM3Y7wCLcBGAs/s1600/Rafale%2BMMRCA%2B%2526%2BRAFAEL%2527s%2BX-Guard%2Btowed-decoy.jpg

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: Trust Indonesia, and not India, to do the common-sensical plain-speaking with China: Luhut Pandjaitan, Indonesia’s Maritime Affairs Minister, said: “I spoke with my Chinese counterpart about the 9-Dash Line. They don’t deny that Natuna Island is ours. But then the 200-mile EEZ is also ours and that goes beyond the Line. I asked why they are claiming the South China Sea. They said they have a historical claim, its part of the sentiment of the mainland, and it was the route taken by the Chinese explorer Zheng He. I said if this is true, then using the same logic, when the Mount Krakatoa volcano exploded, Indonesian ash settled around the world including Beijing, we too could claim this whole area where the volcanic ash settled down.”

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indonesia-likely-to-give-india-access-to-deep-seaport-in-sabang/articleshow/64209190.cms

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Looks like the next PM of Pakistan will have to wear a crown of thorns & walk over burning charcoal, given the intolerable financial debt situation. It therefore appears that denuclearisation will be achieved not through bombing Pakistan back to the stone age, but through economic strangulation (for no declared NWS can maintain its nuclear arsenals while at the same time going to the IMF for financial bailouts):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MQ7Gsjoz-A

Now, it has conclusively emerged that ALL the power-generation projects under CPEC have been over-invoiced by up to 40%! And since China is most unlikely to condone corrupt practices involving its state-owned funds/loans extended to Pakistan under CPEC, the only other plausible explanation is that the over-invoicing was done in order to generate 'secret' funds that will go towards payment of China-supplied military hardware that is destined for Pakistan in future, especially big-ticket items like Type 032 Qing-class SSBs, their complement of ballistic/cruise missiles and the related submarine rebuild facility to be sited in Ormara. If this funding methodology is applied, then it will enable Pakistan to keep its official annual defence budgets at a lower level, which in turn will facilitate Pakistan's efforts at begging for bailouts from the IMF, WB & ADB.

And as I had stated earlier, here's proof that ISIS-Khorasan is not an indigenous movement inside Afghanistan, but rather a full-fledged creation of the Pakistani state:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-up07gP2D4&t=40s

ashish gautam said...

Sorry to use foul language but Chinese keep a danda in Muslims a**.... & most of them deserves it!!!!
I don't think Indians will go till that level of strictness or pitai in Kashmir on a large scale if stone pelting is not stopped or considerably reduced.... coz our political leaders are not strong as China's.... Rest will b done by J&K govt.... Amnesty kinda things... πŸ˜’

rad said...

hi prasun

you mentioned that the su-30mki radar has a 130 km range , I find that confusing . I am given to understand that the su-30 cam pick up air targets at 200km+ . so i am assuming that you are mentioning the target tracking range rather than the detection range. The numbers mentioned seem small for a PESA radar with a massive antenna.

even the small elm -2032 radar can detect ship sized vessels at 300km.

so i believe the su-30 radar can pick up sea vessels at 300+ km given it huge dia and hence
getting a FCS solution with a SAR mode will not be a problem and hence the Brahmos can be fired to its longest range .pse clarify

Does the jaguar darin 3 upgrade provide for hands off low level flying due to the fact that, we have a height Doppler radar, auto pilot and and and an aesa radar for terrain avoidance ?? as well

can u pse upload cockpit pic of the jaguar darin 111

will it be worth while to fit a derby er missile on the jag due the aesa 2052 radar which will give it a good stand off range ,viz a viz the f-16??



Anonymous said...

Prasunda, the debt burden that is explained in the video link that you uploaded, shows that, when the additional debt burden from the CPEC is added to the list of foreign and domestic debt there in that video ... it means Pakistan is literally at the cliff of its debt burden. This is a scary situation, in my opinion.

As the only escape from this is kicking down this debt down the line until the state collapses or the government that picks up this bobm and it "explodes". The only escape that I can think that, that Pakistani Government can think of is to sell its Islamic Bomb to Saudi Arabia. That is almost a certain trigger for a war of Armagaddon (Kayamat ke din)between Saudi and Iran.

Is this a fair assessment?

Kane

man van said...

Dear Prasun,

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/defence-communications-govt-nearly-doubles-nfs-project-budget-to-rs-24000-crore/1170743/

What's this project.

john said...

Hi,

http://makeinindiadefence.gov.in/IAF-%20Imaging%20Serch%20and%20Track%20System%20(IRST).pdf

In India who has the capability to make IRST?

Regards

just_curious said...

Prasun,

Interesting bit of info.. your take on this
http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2018/05/post-upgradation-tejas-mark-2-to-become.html

Why dosen't the drdo /Ada opt for fly by light instead of fly by wire for its future projects including tejas mk2 as this tech is already avaliable with japan from whom we can collaborate as they themselves are working on their own 5th gen jet & also that this feature is already in use on their kawasaki P1 sub hunter. fly by light is much more efficient & jam proof than fly by wire.. is drdo developing this tech as well on its own?

Intolerant Person said...

1.Got some very interesting news:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/united-states-uzbekistan-launching-new-era-strategic-partnership/

Looks loke now US is finally about to take off it's gloves by getting rod of Pakistani Dependence. Ehat do you think will be next?
2.BTW,can an Indian who got PR can work in companies like LM or Boeing in Military field?

rad said...

hi prasun
the LCA mk2 seems to take a long time for design freeze. . Apart from the slightly enlarged intakes to a longer fuselage and wings, there seems nothing major to redesign ie fuselage, and they have been at it for several years what is the status?.

are they seriously working to rectify the basic aerodynamic fault of excessive drag?. will they over come it ? will it be prudent to opt for assistance from dassault or saab as they have more experience in delta design/?

is this because of un expected problems in wind tunnel simulations? or the IAF again trying to shift the goal posts.? will there be a major update on the FBW software due to changes in lift ,cg etc

how long will it take from metal cutting to first flight and how many test flights will be necessary.?

i fear all this exercise of extra weight will nullify the extra thrust of the F414 engine .

you had suggested that the 23mm guns on the LCA was out dated ad we must go for the 30mm. i really doubt if the air frame will take the recoil and more importantly the gun gas ingestion problem of a 30 mm gun as it is directly under the air intake as videos showing the su -30 firing show massive flame extending nearly 5 ft in front .

Sanjeev Kumar said...

Prasun da,
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/tejas-mk-2-is-a-medium-weight-fighter/articleshow/64214939.cms
Tejas MTOW is 17.5T. Your comments?

varun said...

sir,
in the following video, what is the device on the officer's left chest, at 15:07

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faOCH3C7sZ0

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
You had mentioned in reply to Ashish Gautam that the Ka 226 heli would face problems because of the US sanctions that may be a problem for Arrius engines from Turbomeca.

But after seeing the bonhomie in the presser of Merkel with Putin during her Sochi visit today, and the coming Macron visit to Russia, it looks like the Russia and Iran sanctions threat of US is falling apart at the seams with its European partners. I see already that the State dept is starting to backtrack with statements of vagueness about getting to the same page with the allies...

The EU has already brought out the tool to protect its companies from the US sanctions regime over doing its business with Iran. Merkel has actually used "friend" as the parting term after declaring that the Nord Stream 2 will go on desprite the threat of sanctions. The new coalition of Italy that includes the 5Star party even declared in its joint statement that the Russian sanctions must go immediately.

I doubt that the sactions will effect the Ka 226 agreement. What is your reaction to the Ka 226 heli deal, based on the new developments and the new direction of the EU?

Kane

3rd ~ EyE said...

Hi Prasun,

What is the status of DRDOs AEWACS ? initially they invested on Embraer and they switched to Airbus ? hoping to twin them as refueller ? is it true / feasible ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: The RSLU-30MK PESA-MMR can pick up a commercial airliner 305km away, but combat aircraft can be detected 135km away & tracked from 100km. Naval targets can be detected about 180km away. EL/M-2032 MMR has 18nm range. AESA-MMRs can provide both terrain-avoidance & weather search. But one also requires traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS) & ground proximity warning system as separate standalone avionics—both of which are not present on any IAF combat aircraft at present. Photo of Jaguar IS/DARIN-3’s cockpit was uploaded a long time ago in an earlier thread. The wings of the Jaguar IS were not designed to accommodatre BVRAAMs. The LCA-AF MK.2’s internal redesign is also extensive & so are the air-intake tunnels & the main landing gear’s bulkheads for the sake of accommodating extra internal fuel tanks. Of course when the airframe design changes, the CG also changes & hence the entire flight-control l;ogic will also change & will therefore need to be flight-tested extensively. Metal-cutting to first-flight period will be 2 years. Extra weight will be only 200 kg at best, which won’t have any impact on thrust-to-weight ratio when use is made of F-414-GEINS6 turbofan. The LCA’s gun installation is in the belly & BEHIND the air-intakes that are slightly above the belly. The question therefore of any smoke/exhaust plume injestion by the air-intakles doesn’t even arise fo9r any type of cannon being used.

To KANE: Why would the Saudis be interested in obtaining such weapons from Pakistan when they can already procure far better weapons of such types from Israel? And that’s why the KSA & UAE are no longer bailing out Pakistan. And ther Saudis have never forgotten that it was Dr A Q Bhopali Khan who had engaged in nuclear WMD-related commerce with Iran since the 1990s.

To MAN VAN: It is an optical-fibre cable-laying project that should have commenced in 2012, but was kept on getting delayed because previous govts were not willing to bail out a financially ailing BSNL.

To JOHN: LoLz! That questionnaire is not just about making/fabricating IRST sensors, but is also about developing an IRST sensor. And that’s exactly why one question asks whether the sensor will have 40% indigenous material content. And this makes the entire Make-in-India comcept totally useless. The local content should have been at least 85%. But no one in India can design, develop & series-produce such sensors in such limited quantities (the IAF wants only 100 as per the document). At best, therefore, it should have been NOT a standalone IAF reqmt, but a combined IAF/IN reqmt under which such IRST sensors are also meant for installation on warships, as well as on IAF & naval & IA bases (as an element of passive target acquisition/fire-control systems) for air-defence purposes. This is but one prominent example of how stupid & regressive the MoD’s though-processes are, & those who’ve drafted such querstionnaries are totally clueless about business economies of scale when it comes to military industrialization. And why limit the installation of IRST sensor installation to just the Su-30MKI? Why doesn’t the document mention other combat aircraft, like LCA-AF MK.2 or MiG-29UPG? It’s a really stupid & nonsensical way of asking for practical & affordable solutions.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Here’s the complete list of items requiring indigenisation, & these all are the most critical items that are now imported:

http://makeinindiadefence.gov.in/Briefs%20of%20all%20Potential%20Projects.pdf

To JUST_CURIOUS: One doesn’t need to approach Japan for FBL. The only difference between FBW & FBL is that the former uses conventional wires/sables while the latter uses fibre-optic cables. FBL was first introduced by General Dynamics in the F-16.

To INTOLERANT PERSON: 1) What the US is doing is dashing all self-imagined hopes of Pakistan enjoying a unique geostrategic position. You will recall that most officials frequently make tall claims about Pakistan’s unique location & that such a status makes it indispensible WRT the future status of Afghanistan & the rest of Central Asia. Well, now all balloons are being bursted & all the false notions that Pakistan had until now clinged to are being systematically decapitated, resulting in Pakistan’s geopolitical /geostrategic isolation coupled with economic strangulation. Very soon Pakistanis will run of even grass, which one of their former leaders in the early 1970s had promised to feed Pakistanis with for 1,000 years just so that Pakistan could acquire nuclear WMDs. 2) Yes, he/she can, provided he/she clears the vetting processes of the concerned US security agencies.

To SANJEEV KUMAR: Even that MTOW does not make the LCA-AF Mk.2 an MMRCA.

To KANE: You are mixing up 2 separate issues for unfathomable reasons: one dealing with US sanctions against Iran’ & one dealing with EU/NATO sanctions imposed on Russia. Neither Germany nor France have uttered a word about lifting sanctions imposed on Russia. Hence, I will not ASSUME that what applies to one case also applies to all other cases. The national interests of the Western countries vastly differ when it comes to Iran on one hand, & Russia on the other.

To 3rd-EYE: Nothing has changed since Aero India 2017.

Pierre Zorin said...

Reading your narrative above, I can see a planned assault by the Indian side to wrest back territories and permanently defining the border to prevent future infiltration from the Pakistani side. However, there is a confusing element in this plan then. IF Nirbhay missiles won't be available/ready till 2023 and they are to be used in conjunction with Brahmos - how could any action commence prior to 2023? Is there a stock of Kalibr or similar missiles on order to fill the gap until 2023? As you said before thanks to the AEW&S systems PAF has acquired, the surprise element of an IAF thrust is now lost. Just wanting to get a bigger picture because I am sure the Indian side would like to emulate the US style attacks of shock and awe to minimise collateral and human losses.

ANKIT KUMAR said...

Indian Navy has issued 2 RFI
1. RFI for 12 USVs.
2. RFI for 08 AUVs.
They should be MCM, ASW and ISR capable.

What do you think are the present solutions which meets these requirements and can be offered to IN. I suppose Israel is a leading player here.

Indian said...

Dear Prasun,
Now that our design capability is established in fighter aircraft design, why can't we go for design of next superior aircraft? Why talk about only one aircraft type ie; LCA for decades? Do you think India will succeed in developing its own jet engine in say next 5-10 year's?

john said...

Hi,

Thanks for the prompt reply.

http://idrw.org/tejas-mark-1a-faces-delay-as-air-force-adds-to-demands/

Why IAF keep changing goal post?

They could have gone for upgrade later.

Your comments.....

Regards

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANKIT KUMAR: For the USW the top contender will be France’s ECA Group, while for the AUV the top contender will be Kongsberg AS of Norway. Both have already supplied such hardware in the past & therefore no new RFI ought to be issued since this will make matters worse. All efforts should me made to achieve hardware commonality, instead of procuring diverse types of platforms from diverse OEMs.

To INDIAN: How can anyone even imagine that India’s design capability has been established WRT airborne platforms? Tejas Mk.1 & Mlk.1A are still in the works as is the LCA-AF Mk.2. It is still highly premature to make such tall claims. Only in terms of sub-systems development has appreciable progress been made.

To JOHN: LoLz! All all this while all internet fanboys were so full of hope & self-back-patting that the Tejas Mk.1A was the much-expected solution! This of course includes the ‘desi’ bandalbaaz’ who has authored the latest ‘kahaani’ which is full of errors. So let’s start exposing such bandalbaazes, shall we, by exposing their reporting errors. Firstly, ADA NEVER designs missions computers. Within the DRDO, such hardware has always been designed by DARE. Secondly, the HAL-developed mission computer is called OSAMC & it can be viewed here:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MFQNpdLA7sE/UR6g0fJBOnI/AAAAAAAAEHg/efobicTGKGk/s1600/HAL-Developed+Avionics-1.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aGQGXSociig/UR6g57G0ejI/AAAAAAAAEHo/Bu-lwz8kkg0/s1600/HAL-Developed+Avionics-2.jpg

Thirdly, when AESA-MMR is mandated, it means more display of imagery & symbology is reqd, since the AESA-MMR operates concurrently (interleaved) in several modes in one go, i.e. airspace search, target tracking, terrain avoidance, weather search & imagery from target designation pod. And the results of each such function needs to be displayed to the pilot for achieving optimum situational awareness. Therefore, only IDIOTS with no respect whatsoever for the laws of physics (especially the internet fanboys and the Bandalbaaz) will expect to see the AESA-MMR operating in conjunction with the Tejas Mk.1’s existing AMLCD-based cockpit multifunction displays. So what’s the solution? The IAF should IMMEDIATELY mandate that the HALBIT-supplied Cockpit-NG suite (which anyway will go on the LCA-AF Mk.2) be installed on the Tejas Mk.1A. This suite features a panoramic AMLCD screen similar to what’s on the F-35 JSF & therefore there’s ample space for the simultaneous display of all imagery/symbology. This will save HAL enough time in terms of product development. Time therefore will be taken only for reprogramming the OSAMC’s symbology/video cards, which can be done within a mere 6 months since the Cockpit-NG’s already proven boperating parameters will be known to HAL & will not therefore require any extra validation. So now, it remains to be seen if the IAF & HAL will display some common-sense & opt for the least risky & most practical approach that I’ve explained above.

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

1. Why doesn't the MoD or even the armed forces make the Services Capital Acquisition Plan public ?

2. Do the engines of cruise missiles have a use by date ? In other words do these engines need to be changed after a few years ?

Thanks,

VIKRAM

bhoutik said...

why are the MF-STAR radomes on Kolkata class not flat? and does it matter?

john said...

Hi,

Thanks for your prompt reply.

Few more clarifications........ Changes asked by IAF- Tejas MK1A......

1. “combined interrogator and transponder”.

Can we use the Indian IFF, designed, developed and evaluated by DRDO-CABS for Navy’s Boeing P8-I for Tejas MK!A. If so, how long will take to integrate ?

2. "A digital map generator"

CamAvia - ComAvia's 'Digital Map Generator' the indigenous pilot navigator, has the ability to display moving maps, overlaid with useful avionics symbols, to the pilot of an aircraft. The DMG greatly enhances the pilot's awareness of his current flight situation and improves his navigational, attack and defense capabilities.

http://www.comavia.com/products.asp
http://www.comavia.com/DMG.htm

Their head office is in Bangalore. Can they help HAL? Is it a time consuming exercise?

3. "Improved radio altimeter"

What is wrong with the present one? Are they flying with inaccurate altimeter?. Is it a tough task to replace it?

Regards


Anonymous said...

1)Something interesting-PAKISTAN WILL SET-UP A SATELLITE DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION FACILITY
The APP also reports that Pakistan will complete feasibility studies for two new projects:

First, a second remote-sensing satellite – i.e. Pakistan Remote Sensing Satellite 02 (PRSS-02) – with “sub-meter” resolution image capture capability.

Second, the Pakistan Navigation Satellite System (PakNav), which will provide Pakistan with “independent satellite navigation for both civilian and strategic purposes”.
Link:https://quwa.org/2018/05/14/pakistan-will-set-up-a-satellite-development-and-production-facility/

What is this PakNav? Anything significant? "Strategic Purposes" will beidu wont suffice for that?

2)Is pakistan still supporting Jaish al adil sunni extremist group in Iranian baluchistan. What is this Iranian guy accusing Pak in this post?

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/iran-fm-to-visit-pakistan-next-week.547967/page-4#post-10502891

3)From your article:"5) China’s surprising unwillingness to supply the PAF with the more advanced PL-8 or PL-9C within-visual-range air-to-air missiles for the PAF’s JF-17As."
Any possible reason?

Regards,
Anna

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) It should be done, but false & ill-perceived notions of secrecy prevent that from happening. 2) 10 years. After that, re-lifing of the entire missile is reqd.

To BHOUTIK: Again the laws of physics seem to be going for a toss! Inclination is reqd so that the fixed-array antennae can look upwards out to a greater distance & scan a greater volume of airspace, which would not have been possible if the antenna masthead was flat. This is the case with ALL PESA & active-phased-array antennae in all warships worldwide.

To JOHN: Why P-8I’s CIT? Such CITs have already been developed for Su-30MKI & Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 & are already operational with the IAF. Even the EMB-145I Netra AEW & CS has CIT. 2) Same goes for DMG. They are on Su-30MKI & Jaguar IS/DARIN-3. Previous radio altimeter was from THALES & was giving problems, supposedly due to EMI. But now the ‘desi’ radio altimeter is already on Jaguar IS/DARIN-3. It’s all here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2013/10/clearing-mist-on-airborne-ew-suites.html?commentPage=2

To ANNA: 1) A country that has to pay $13 billion this year alone as interests on previous loans can only afford to have daydreams on such matters! 2) That’s the same group that was involved in kidnapping Kulbhushan Kadhav from Chabahar. 3) Because they were developed with RAFAEL’s assistance in the 1980s until 1989 & therefore RAFAEL has prohibited China from exporting these AAMs to anyone else. These are all China-specific missiles for Chinese usage only.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

# The Zoji La Tunnel will reduce the travel time between Srinagar and Leh drastically. It also aims to provide safe, fast and cheap connectivity.

# The project will provide all-weather connectivity to the region. The project has strategic and socio-economic importance and shall be an instrument for the development of the economically backward districts in Jammu and Kashmir.

# The civil construction cost of the project is Rs.4,899.42 crore. The total capital cost of the project is Rs.6,808.69 crore. It includes the cost towards land acquisition, resettlement and rehabilitation and other pre-construction activities as well as maintenance and operation cost of the tunnel for four years.

# The tunnel will be the longest bi-directional tunnel in Asia. Its construction period will be five years because of a very difficult terrain where in some areas temperature dips to minus 45 degree Celsius. The tunnel shall be an engineering marvel as first of its kind in such a geographical area.

# The pass is situated at an altitude of 11,578 feet ASL on Srinagar-Kargil-Leh National Highway (NH-1D) and remains closed during winters due to heavy snowfall, which cuts off Ladakh from Kashmir.

# Defence forces have to face a hard time ensuring supplies to border posts during winters. This pass is most strategic for the entire Kargil sector, which has seen intrusion and war in the past.

# The project aims at construction of 14.15km-long two-lane bi-directional single-tube tunnel with a parallel 14.2km-long egress tunnel, excluding approaches between Baltal and Minamarg in the state.

# The project will further increase the employment potential for the local labourers for the project activities. On its completion, it will lead to enormous boost in employment as local businesses get linked to National market and the beautiful region is able to receive round the year tourist traffic.

# It is implemented by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRT & H) through the National Highways & Infrastructure Development Corp Ltd (NHIDCL).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ5k9cgN_wA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRirOU61MZ8

And next month some high-profile celebrations/commemorations are planned WRT this true patriot of India, who peacefully passed away last month & now rests in everlasting peace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXtdVyao8K4&t=2s

And there were & there are still thousands of Kashmiri ladies/women who have /are most willingly conducting the same type of missions for India. And this will be the final nail-in-the-coffin of all false propaganda that's belched out by Pakistan WRT J & K through scum-of-the-earth/piece-of-shit like this creature:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xmap8p1uDw

The final dress-rehearsals for cold-starting the AirLand campaign were conducted lasst month during EX Vijay Prahar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SJZhPK-wQE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxLoX2tMgNA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwbmrxAKdJI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECRS8RMdTTI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFO3XtdR0nM

To PIERRE ZORIN: You are ASSUMING that the next round of military hostilities will be all-out wars in which all of the PAF's air bases would need to be destroyed. Such an assumption is premature & conclusions should not be drawn until one reads the forthcoming thread that will explain just how the AirLand campaign will unfold & be executed. And BTW, the Kalibre LACMs that everyone's now talking about, the IN has had a few hundred of them since 2003. They are the export versions, known as 3M-14E KLUB-S. Each Type 877EKM SSK can launch four opf them successively. So, if six of the Type 877EKM SSKs line up abreast some 50nm outside Karachi & each of them fires 4 3M-14Es against any target in Karachi area or at PAF Masroor or PAF Faisal or PAF Korangi Creek or PNS Mehran, what then do you reckon will be the result?

Pierre Zorin said...

Correction I wrote 2023 when you said 2021 for Nirbhay. No I was not assuming an all out war, but wondered how would it benefit India if only the ones adjoining the border area are destroyed because that still would allow PAF to utilise air assets and airfields from inside Pakistan...especially if they get a steady supply from China. The purpose of an all out war would have to be destruction of the state of Pakistan, reducing its size by allowing independence to Balochistan and Sindh, installing a puppet regime and defacto ruling of Pakistan from India like they used to do in Afghanistan. Quite obviously this, though ideal, is impossible and improbable hence to appease the international community India can only take limited actions that can be justified as acting within its own sovereign territory and for self defence i.e. thwarting repeated infiltration from across the border and countering violence by Pakistani regime.

ashish gautam said...

Though I shouldn't ask u as u aren't dedicated a political analyst but still I wanted to know ur personal opinion on this matter-
Air land campaigns etc will happen only if BJP remains in power at its own in 2019 onwards. Coz Congress won't let it happen.
So do u think they will remain so? If yes then as per ur analysis how many seats u expect for bjp at its own?

ashish gautam said...

Recently Farooq Abdullah wrote to Harinder sikka not to reveal sehmat's pic. So u think its gonna revealed or not? & yes sehmat died in april 2018

ARUN said...

Dear Sir

How Long will it Take for FATF sanctions on Pakistan
to start really Hurting pakistani economy

Is USA waiting for pakistan's complete Economic and Political
Melt down before moving in for the Strangulation

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

1. What are the implications of setting up the Sawalkote (1,856 MW), Pakal Dul (1,000 MW) and Bursar (800 MW) power projects? How is it going to affect Pakistan?

2. Sukhoi-30MKI can detect J-20 fighter aircrafts. Is it true? Then Chinese air force becomes inferior to IAF. Your say please.

The Xeno said...

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2146296/how-chinese-mining-himalayas-may-create-new-military-flashpoint

What do you think?

bhoutik said...

sorry i should have asked more clearly - i understand the inclination - what i meant was why are the radomes popping up like a semi-spere - i ask because i just saw the 2nd Dokdo class that launched with the MF-STAR - and it's mast is very similar to the Kolkata's but the part of the mast covering the radar is designed as a flat surface - so i was just wondering...

Anik said...

Aother military excercise going on in mahajan field firing range.

Sapta Shakti Command's Chetak Corps is currently carrying out an exercise "Gandiv Vijay " in the Mahajan Field Firing Ranges of Rajasthan under gruelling weather conditions to validate their operational plans.
https://twitter.com/PRODefRjsthn/status/997810064919617536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html%23997810064919617536

Ajay said...

Dear Sir

How is GULTARI valley for a Target in POK

Is it a Worthy target

The pakis are very possessive of Gilgit Baltistan

There is also a RATTU cantonment nearby

Anonymous said...

https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/pak-to-give-greater-administrative-and-financial-authority-to-pok-gilgit-baltistan/articleshow/64243606.cms

Will this create hurdle in regaining pok back?

http://m.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2146296/how-chinese-mining-himalayas-may-create-new-military-flashpoint

Isn't this a serious issue? Just like SCS will they chip away land slowly under our nose. There population at the AP border will increase dramatically which put us a disadvantageous position as same is not in our case.

Tushar

The Xeno said...

https://www.tolonews.com/world/former-pakistani-general-killed-afghanistan

This is the depth to which terrorism has penetrated Pakistan. Even an Army General is not immune to it.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Not necessarily. Folks forget that it was Dr Manmohan Singh at the UNGA in September 2013 that had forcefully stated that the entire PoK is an integral & sovereign part of India & will always remain so. Earlier, it was the the 1994 govt of P V Narasimha Rao that had sponsored the all-party parliamentary resolution calling for the liberation & recovery of J & K. Be it any party in India, it is made up of people from amongst us. Therefore, they will be just like us & will think & behave like us. No one from the BJP or NDA is FARISHTAA who has fallen or descended from the heavens above to ‘rescue’ India. And matters have progressed to such an extent that no matter which party forms the next govt, it will not be able to reverse destiny’s tide, whose course & speed are being set by powers much more mightier than India or China or Russia. The deceased spy’s details should not be revealed in case her relatives are still living in the Kashmir Valley, since they may well be targetted in revenge-attacks by Pak-sponsored terrorists.

To ARUN: The moment they kick off next month. It is strangulation that leads to meltdown.

To ASD: Thjere are no implications since these are all run-of-the-river projects where no appreciable quantities of water are held in storage. In any case Pakistan has always lost & will always lose all cases against India WRT IWT because as per international law Pakistan has totally faioled to efficiently utilize its own allocated water resources by not building reservoirs & not building dams & throwing 45% of its water resources into the Arabian Sea via the Indus River. Here’s a related document:

http://jklegislativecouncil.nic.in/final15118/s402.pdf

Yes, the Su-30MKI & even the MiG-29UPG & Mirage 2000N can all detect & track J-20, which is neither stealthy, nor super-manoeuvreable nor super-cruisable.

To The XENO: It is happening well within the Chinese side of the LAC & therefore poses no threat or challenge to India, rest assured. The story on Shahid Aziz may well be fake, since no one in Pakistan is reporting it. But it is true that as a result of self-guilt, he had turned very religious & was gravitating towards the like-minded jihadi and religiosity-inspired tanzeems & political parties. And here’s an excellent book on the 1st India-Pakistan War:

https://ia800604.us.archive.org/34/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.220135/2015.220135.Military-Plight.pdf

And read this book as well, after it is out for sale:

https://www.amazon.in/Spy-Chronicles-RAW-Illusion-Peace/dp/9352779258

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BHOUTIK: LoLz! You should have used the term ‘bulbous’. Those protrusions are there because the antenna inside is located within a swashplate, meaning the antenna can be moved in both azimuth & elevation if reqd. And that’s because all four antennae are placed so close to one another that sometimes there are gaps which appear in airspace coverage volume due to the Earth curvature. Hence, to overcome this limitation, the swashplates are remotely activated to overcome the gaps. In case of IAC-1/Project 71 aircraft carrier, there are six antenna arrays of the MF-STAR all distributed at some distance from one another atop the carrier’s island & therefore there all the antenna apertures are flat.

To AJAY: Entire PoK is a target. Nothing special about Gultari or Astore. The IA had plans even back in 1971 to capture Skardu.

To TUSHAR: Do read this: https://www.dawn.com/news/1408800/disempowering-gb

aritro data said...

Prasunji,

can you please tell about status of nirbhay program? how does it match up to chinese longsword?how many will india need?will it be effective against chinese SAMs?

rad said...

hi pasun
turkey selling atak copter to pak!! will the deal go thru ?? can the Turks arm twist the US to allow export of their GE engines to pak especially after sanctions on Pak ?? where did the money come form ?? and what is the dying demand to go for atak helis suddenly??

the Iaf chief says that the j-20 was easily detected, what if the Chinese purposely put radar reflecting plates in the fuselage to make it detectable and the remove them in times of actual war to make enemies complacent ??

i was given to understand from pics that the iac-1 has 4 mfstar radar faces rather then 6 just like the vishakapatnam class??

can the digital map software be tied into the Auto pilot of the Jaguar darin 3 .

how may have been upgraded?








just_curious said...

Prasun , to add to my prev queries.. why can't India simply invite Boeing to join the AMCA development ? it will be a win for both as India inevitably will need US expertise in stealth & Boeing jet division is struggling for new orders..

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARITRO DATA: DFevelopment of Nirbhay is coming along smoothly & there are no hiccups. No LACM is protected from SAMs. If an air-defence network has long-range IRST sensors as part of the early warning network, then it is fairly easy to detect & track both LACMs & stealthy aircraft.

To RAD: There is no such deal & nothing is going ahead. This is what is coming out of Turkey: Turkey and Pakistan are on the verge of inking a deal for the purchase of T129 Advanced Attack and Tactical Reconnaissance Helicopters (ATAK). Turkish and Pakistani governments are close to closing the ATAK helicopter deal in the upcoming months, if not weeks.

The deal won’t go through unless 1) the US gives export approval for the LHTEC CTS-800 turboshaft engine, & 2) Pakistan gets the financial loan it is asking from Turkey. Anu aircraft with canards can be detected by not such combat aircraft, but also by AEW & CS platforms. I had already uploaded pix of the IAC-1’s island that clearly shows 6 antennae in a distributed architecture. DMG & autopilot are always linked to the RLG-INS & flight management system (FMS). There is no need at all to link the autopilot to DMG, since only the RLG-INS provides the true position of an aircraft. Neither DMG or autopilot have any standalone sensors or instrumentation reqd to determine the actual position of the aircraft.

To JUST_CURIOUS: You seem to be under the strange & mistaken impression that Beoing is dying for new orders & is hard-pressed for money! Are you really ASSUMING that if someone has a crucial edge in a particular technological sphere, then it will willingly share it with someone else? If the US can’t do this with even its most trusted allies like the UK & Japan, then how can one ever dream about such a collaboration taking place between the US & India? So let’s get real & not have any outrageous illusions. And leave alone the US, not even Russia will part with such critical know-how & that's why all earlier hype & bullshit about India & Russia co-developing the FGFA is now being given a decent but steady burial by India.

Anik said...

NOTAM warning has been issued for Ship launched missile test with 700km range..........
https://twitter.com/kurup89/status/998554245237374978

Intolerant Person said...

1.Is it true that Indian Army doesn't use pellet guns and only CAPFs and JKPF uses it?
2.What happened with that Shahid Aziz fellow?Last time,he was criticizing Mushraff for Kargil.

Gessler said...

VMT for the previous answers, Prasun ji!

By the way, Enjoy:

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/12-minutes-max-to-destroy-israel-pak-commander201805211450300002/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

Anonymous said...

1. Why the beam of Indian navy ship is made smaller than U.S. & European ships
Kolkata class destroyer=17.4 mtr(Beam)
Type 45 destroyer= 21.2 mtr.
Burke class destroyer= 20 mtr.
2. Project 15b destroyer is similar than that of project 15a destroyer. So, why project 15b destroyer is taking such a long time for commissioning.
Ins vishakhapatnam launched= April 2015
Ins mormugao launched= sep. 2016
Regards Koushik.

Anil said...

looks like by the frequent visits of Modi to other countries for gathering support and war gaming at home validating plans, there will be a Ind-Pak war in 2018-19...

Anonymous said...

This is after buying just one S400 from Russia inspite of being NATO member. What will be our condition? We are buying 4 of these systems
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/god-help-turkey-says-brokerage-as-lira-goes-into-meltdown

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Will we purchase the S-400 in spite of US CAATSA, even if the U.S. refuses a waiver? Hope this is the case.

2) You mentioned in the previous thread that a MIRVed A5 Mk2 would be developed. Could we expect a first MIRVed test in the next year or two ?

Kritavarma

rad said...

hi prasun

what are these local modern items that have been put on board the bhramos missile to make i t more modern and local and what is all this boasting about?

will the russians allow that?

are the pakistan jf-17 in line to receive the latest air to air missiles that chinks is developing ??

we seem to have developed a array off avionics for the lca including the aesa radar. what will be the other crucial things we have to develop ?

even pak has fielded local irst a long time back , where did they get the tech?

is there any program for the development of the that and what would be the crucial tech for that ? if Israel can collaborate on DIRCM then they can make a IRST for us like the barak 8
your suggestion of IRST being developed as fast a s possible should be taken up for crusis missile defense and passive long range targeting.

how did china get the tech for irst ? Ukraine ??